Will the average price of potatoes shatter last season's record (if you can say so) in the coming weeks? If you now look at the developments in the potato market, that could well be the case. Spring was also particularly late at that time, which pushed the potato price up quickly. The overall situation will be significantly worse towards mid-June 2024, with many plots that still need to be planted and high disease pressure in plots that are already in the ground.
Belgapom quoted €7 per 55 kilos for both Fontane and Challenger on Friday, June 100, which is exactly the same as the price level of last season. Then the price took another step up in week 25, reaching €60. It is expected that the highest price level of last season will certainly be achieved in the near future. The question is: can we take it even further?
Based on how the situation is currently developing, that is certainly not unthinkable. Just think, a significant amount still needs to be planted, especially in Belgium, and the exceptional amount of rainfall has caused a lot of damage to the plots already planted throughout the EU-4 countries. Insiders estimate that the potato harvest for the 2024/25 season could be 15% to 20% lower than what could be harvested under 'normal' conditions. 'Normal' can now be left out when it comes to potato cultivation.
Where is the risk?
While price risk has been anticipated in recent years and security has been sought in the various contract forms - directly or indirectly - offered by processors, today the risk on the cultivation technical side is an issue that causes much more headaches. The fact in 2024 is that the potato harvest can be priced at an early stage, but the certainty of the desired/expected volume decreases due to all uncontrollable external factors.
The futures market for the April 2025 contract is already approaching the €40 level. An excellent basic price (well above the average contract level) to cover (or click) potatoes. However, the uncertainty about the coming months in terms of the further development of the growing season is such that people seem to be watching the cat out of the tree for the time being. In this sense, price records will also be shattered for the new season. All ingredients, no matter how sour for many growers, are on the table. As the season progresses, the question is at what price level the ceiling will be reached when it comes to the futures market. Will a price range of €40 or €50 become the new normal for the coming months? Keep in mind that other stakeholders in the chain also have no idea how the drawing should be colored next season and what the associated price will be. That already arouses curiosity about the 2025 harvest year!