In the potato market, emotion is often the biggest driver in price formation. This also applies in recent weeks, where persistent rainfall, often in large quantities, the resulting long, drawn out planting season and the scarce and in some cases poor quality seed potatoes have pushed prices to a record level.
Heavy showers fell again locally last week, but the drier weather ahead gave the market some hope and relief. The last potatoes are expected to go into the ground next week, mainly in Belgium and the south of the Netherlands.
How these late and very late planted crops will develop will depend on the remainder of the growing season. Will everything run smoothly from now on or will summer strike again? The harvest will also determine the late to very late planted potatoes. Late harvesting can cause a lot of stress, as we saw again last autumn. Only time will tell in the coming months.
Neutral
It seems as if stakeholders in the sector are neutral. First let's see if and what is actually undergrowth. The phytophthora that is spreading is also a concern. However, experience shows that this does not make the market much better price-wise.
For the moment, all factors that determine mood seem to have been somewhat incorporated into the market. The futures market price for the April 2025 contract is now around the €40 level. It is known that processors who want to physically secure potatoes from growers before week 17, 2025 (week of settlement of the futures market), do so at approximately €37 per 100 kilos. This is done by growers who have good crops and are looking for further coverage, which can then be achieved well above the already high contract price.
Processors are now struggling to keep their baking lines running, although you wouldn't even say so given the processing figures for last May. Remarkable in a sense, because the problems with water damage and inability to plant were already clear at that time. No opportunity is left unused to keep going. Free potatoes from the 2023 harvest are purchased for €60 and even more. Processors look within Europe (for example Romania) but also beyond (Egypt). This has not made processors decide to take their foot off the gas, but to continue running at full speed.