If we can believe the provisional acreage figures for consumption potatoes in Belgium, the acreage will increase significantly this year. This is mainly due to growth in Wallonia. These figures must be approached with some caution. As we know, the start of the season has been far from smooth.
Flanders has now published official figures for the provisional areas in the Dutch-speaking part of Belgium and puts the total potato area at 58.265 hectares. That is 1,8% more than was grown last year and therefore the largest area ever in our southern neighbors.
There are considerable differences in these figures. For example, the area of early potatoes (harvest before September 1) decreases by 9% to 5.734 hectares. The area for the main harvest increased by 3,2% (1.589 hectares). In percentage terms, the seed potato area is growing by almost a third, to 1.715 hectares. In particular, more certified seed potatoes have been planted. 30% more compared to a quarter more farm seed potatoes (known as ATR in the Netherlands). This move is not surprising given the (alleged) shortage of starting material at the start of this season.
11% more potatoes in Wallonia
The Belgian potato organizations Fiwap and Carah complete the picture with the figures for Wallonia. There, the consumption area is reportedly increasing by a good 11% to 45.256 hectares. More than 5.000 hectares more than 2023. Here too, there is a decline in the area of early potatoes, which only plays a marginal role in the French-speaking part of Belgium (75 hectares).
The area of seed potatoes has more than doubled this season in Wallonia to 1.477 hectares. The cultivation of farm seed potatoes will increase from 58 to 357 hectares. A growth of more than 500%. This area is not very impressive, but it does send a signal that the Belgians have invested heavily in more of their own seed potatoes. In that respect, 2023/24 can be remembered as a turning point in the history books.
6.500 hectares of extra potatoes
If you list all the pluses and minuses, you arrive at just under 105.000 hectares of consumption and seed potatoes in Belgium. That is 6,6% more than was grown in 2023. Good for almost 6.500 hectares more. This is the largest area growth since 2016. The variety distribution, based on figures from Belgian organizations, clearly shows how part of the seed potato problem has been solved. The area of other varieties is growing by 36%, while that of the large varieties Fontane, Challenger and Innovator is shrinking. Bintje can count on 4% growth.
These figures cause a small shock reaction in the European potato sector, and that is understandable. Last winter it was thought that the seed potato shortage would have a significant impact on the acreage in the EU-4. Yet all countries in the EU-4 show growth in potato cultivation. The seed potato trading companies have done everything they can to deliver as many sizes as possible, which is what happened. Cutting machines have ultimately also been a savior in 'creating' more seed potatoes. Export figures from the NAO previously showed that Belgians ultimately received 6% less Dutch seed potatoes. Belgian factories do not want such a situation to happen again. The trading companies have focused on more chip varieties, but as the figures now show, Belgians are also growing more seed potatoes. That flywheel will start turning, especially when the large chip varieties can be propagated without a license in three to five years.
More hectares, fewer potatoes?
The key question now is how many potatoes will be harvested this year. Potato plots may have been abandoned but not planted. We know that potatoes were still going into the ground until the beginning of July. In addition, there have been problems with attendance. Not only due to excessive precipitation, but also due to the quality of the seed potatoes. If you calculate with the five-year average hectare yield of 40,5 tons, the consumption harvest can theoretically amount to 4,12 million tons. Even with the record area, this is 520.000 tons less than was cleared last year. If you take into account a 10% yield loss due to emergence problems, water damage and the late planting date, you arrive at 3,7 million tons. This is comparable to the 2018 and 2021 harvest years.
Thanks to timely precipitation and moderate temperatures with sufficient sun, the crops are now growing fast. Only time will tell how the 2024 harvest will ultimately turn out. Another factor to consider is harvest risk. On average, the potatoes are planted a month later or even more. This shifts the harvest time. This can cause some problems in a wet autumn. The area figures may paint a rosy picture for the potato supply in Belgium; in practice it is still far to the finish, to use cycling terms.