Analysis Potatoes

Despite an increase in acreage, there is a healthy market in sight

17 July 2024 - Niels van der Boom - 29 comments

All consumption potatoes in the EU-4 are now in the ground for the 2024 harvest year. Planting has taken place until the beginning of July. It shows once again how extreme the first half of this year has been. Now that the provisional acreage figures have been received, an initial analysis can also be made for the 2024 harvest.

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This is what you need to know about the area shifts:

  • Consumption potato area in EU-4 increases to 547.490 hectares
  • Strong growth in France, Germany and Belgium
  • Damage is especially visible in the South of the Netherlands and Belgium
  • This produces a theoretical yield of 23,47 million tons
  • Final yield very uncertain due to heterogeneous stand

First of all: it is almost impossible to make an accurate estimate for the 2024 potato harvest. The situation varies per region, location and even per plot. This sometimes leads to heated discussions within the sector. There are areas where the crops are in really bad shape, but there are also areas where planting was done on time and the potatoes have grown well. What makes it so difficult is that all these situations can occur within one area. 

Record area
Overall, the consumption potato area in the EU-4 increased this year to 547.490 hectares. That is a plus of 28.617 hectares. Never before have there been so many potatoes in these four countries. 

All countries show a plus in the area. The significant increase of 5,5% is partly due to a significant increase in France. This country accounts for almost half of this increase. The area is also increasing noticeably in Germany and Belgium. The Netherlands itself shows no record. This also applies to Germany. There is a caveat to this, because Destatis, the German statistical service, has only published a total figure for consumption, seed potatoes and starch. The figure for pure consumption is our own estimate and based on historical relationships. 

The official French figures also differ from UNPT and GIPT. The government agency Agreste reported 159.000 hectares of ware potatoes at the beginning of June, while the above-mentioned organizations report well over 170.000 hectares.

Country Area in ha. Avg. 5 years ha. yield Revenue in million tons
The Netherlands 78.000 45,70 3,56
Belgium 101.850 40,54 4,13
France 170.244* 39,64 6,30
Germany 197.400** 42,22 8,33
Total 547.490 42,87 23,47

The biggest challenge in terms of growth is in the South of the Netherlands and Belgium. Planting was also done relatively late in Northern France, but not as extreme as further north. Of the four countries, Germany has the best cards when it comes to the starting situation. The fact is that part of the area can be written off due to seed potato problems and water damage. We can conclude that almost all planned hectares of potatoes have actually been planted. The potato processors have taken care of that. 

Even in the second week of July, planting machines were still spotted in the field. (Parts of) plots have also been transplanted. At the same time, heavy precipitation is causing local problems again in early July.

More hectares, fewer potatoes?
The five-year average potato yield is 42,06 tons per hectare. With the current figure, you are talking about almost 23,5 million tons of consumption potatoes (table + fries) in the EU-4. That is 220.000 tons more than was harvested last year. With an average harvest, we can therefore say that the current potato area is not entirely sufficient to maximize the available processing capacity in the four countries. This could potentially be an ingredient for a market development similar to the previous two seasons.

The key question is whether an average yield level is realistic. Last year, an average of more than 45 tons per hectare was harvested. With such a figure, the 2024 harvest will amount to 24,63 million tons. The processors can probably handle this volume, but the impact on price movements will be significant with supply exceeding demand.

Yield loss
The far from good turnout, water damage, disease pressure and other problems have an impact on the yield. The area figures also do not take the planting dates into account. What potential do crops have that are only planted at the end of June? The growing season should determine this. Insiders expect a 10% to 15% yield loss due to all these factors. The volume is thus reduced to 22,2 million tons. That is too little for the factories. More hectares therefore do not necessarily mean more kilos. That's not to mention the harvest risk for all those late-planted hectares of potatoes.

Polish acreage in limbo
We cannot write about the EU-4 without also including Poland. No official figures have (yet) been published for this area. In 2023 the area amounted to 182.000 hectares. A significant increase to 200.000 hectares is expected. Especially now that the prices of grains and rapeseed have normalized again and there is demand from processors, growers are giving the crop another chance.

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