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North American market chokes on oversupply

31 July 2024 - Niels van der Boom - 9 comments

The potato area in the United States will decrease by 2% this year. There is a reason for that. Processors are faced with a huge supply of French fries potatoes, while the market for frozen potato products is cooling down. The aim is therefore clearly for smaller production for the current growing season.

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Statistics Canada has now also presented the official acreage figures for 2024, with which the balance for North America can be drawn up. The statistics service assumes 159.300 hectares of potatoes. That is a decrease of 1% compared to last year. Good for 1.460 hectares.

Fewer fries potatoes
The area is only decreasing in the prairie states of Alberta and Manitoba. This has everything to do with the potato processors, who have contracted fewer tons from their growers. In the two provinces, cultivation will decrease by more than 2.800 hectares this season. It is the lowest acreage in four years.

The area of ​​table and seed potatoes remains stable this year in Canada. The shrinkage is almost entirely in chip potatoes. On Prince Edward Island, the largest cultivation area in the country, cultivation is even growing slightly to 34.520 hectares.

The rest of the growing season will tell whether fewer hectares ultimately yield fewer potatoes. Last fall, Canadian growers left 2,5% of the acreage in the ground. Either due to the inability to get rid of free supply or due to frost. This may have an impact on the final figures. Normally about 1,5% of the area is not harvested.

Old harvest until September
A total of 540.270 hectares of potatoes will be grown in North America this year. That is a decrease of 11.300 hectares or 2%. In addition to the aforementioned Canadian provinces, the cultivation of chip potatoes has also been cut in Idaho and the Columbia Basin in the United States. Factories there also run potatoes from the old harvest in August, and sometimes even in September.

The 2023 growing season showed an increase in area and a very good yield. This year the weather is not bad everywhere. Weather extremes mainly occur locally. However, growers indicate that it will not be a winner in the important growing areas. In Alberta it is dry and hot, which is not good for the crops. There is local hail damage in Manitoba. 

Less French fries consumption
Last week published the American Lamb Weston's annual figures for 2023-2024. These were very disappointing, after which the stock price fell. Profits decreased by 40%. In the final quarter of the past fiscal year, sales fell 5% to $1,6 billion. The company expects lower demand for fries and other frozen potato products for 2024 and 2025. Something that also occurred in the past 12 months. Due to high inflation, less people are eating outside the home in North America and Europe, which affects French fries consumption.

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