If you look at the explosion of the consumption potato area in the EU-4 (the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and France), in combination with an average harvest, you will end up with a top harvest. However, that is a bit short-sighted. With at least six weeks of growth to go, anything can happen.
It is clear that European arable farmers have responded en masse to the wishes of processors to plant more potatoes. On paper, the area in the EU-4 has increased to almost 550.000 hectares this year. An increase of 30.500 hectares, good for 6% more area than was planted in 2023.
Briefly
Record area
This means the largest area in European countries ever. It is 28.230 hectares more than the old record from 2020, or 5,4%. This upward movement largely comes from Germany and France. In Belgium and certainly the Netherlands, arable farmers are taking it easier, simply because there is hardly any room for more potatoes.
France accounts for 44% of the expansion and Germany 31%. This concerns 13.300 and 9.490 hectares. Belgium is expanding an estimated 5.211 hectares and the Netherlands 2.500 hectares. These figures are based as much as possible on statements from the countries themselves. Belgium has only published figures for Flanders and Germany only reports a total area. That is why we have made our own estimates here, based on historical patterns.
| Country | 2023 | 2024 | Difference in ha | Percentages |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Netherlands | 75.484 | 78.000 | 2.516 | 3,3% |
| Belgium | 96.639 | 101.850 | 5.211 | 5,4% |
| Germany | 189.810 | 199.300 | 9.490 | 5,0% |
| France | 156.940 | 170.240 | 13.300 | 8,5% |
| Total | 518.873 | 549.390 | 30.517 | 5,9% |
Seed potatoes
It is exceptional that production has been able to increase so much this spring. For the 30.500 extra hectares you are quickly talking about a volume of almost 70.000 tons of seed potatoes. And that in a very tight market. That is part of the 'pain' for growers and insiders because, where did all those growers come from? We know that the trading houses have been able to solve an important part by cutting everything they could. The sizes used have been expanded and alternative varieties have been planted. Everyone in the sector knows that in years of shortages, non-certified seed potatoes are also used.
Another question mark is the difference between theory and practice. The area figures are often based on data for the CAP. When arable farmers made these at the beginning of spring, the final situation was far from certain. Planting took place until the first week of July and even then not all plots were passable. As a result, land has been left fallow or another crop may have been sown or planted. If this is significant, the final acreage figures should show a completely different picture at the end of this year. This mainly occurs in the (South) Netherlands and Belgium.
Record revenues
What potato harvest can be produced from this record acreage? If you calculate with the five-year average of each individual country, you arrive at 24,36 million tons of potatoes. That is also an absolute record and well more than the previous record of 23,53 million tons from 2017. At the time, this caused a negative mood on the market, which lasted until the end of the season. But the potato world of seven years ago should not be compared to today. The processing capacity has increased significantly. Even more product is also fixed in advance on a fixed price contract. Yet current pricing, with a complete lack of demand from the industry, does not offer much hope. At the same time, the cards are shuffled differently for the storage season.
Here too, the question is how fair it is to calculate with a multi-year average. The area has shown considerable fluctuations in Europe, especially in the last 3 years. If you extend that line to five, ten or even twenty years, this levels out and you see stabilization in that area. Something that growers probably experience very differently in practice.
Much uncertain
Once again it is the Netherlands and Belgium where the outcome will be different in practice. Among the major rivers there are many plots with a story. What plays a role in all countries is the relatively large share of late-planted crops. The trial harvest figures throughout Europe show both above-average yields and disappointments with these late crops. These can still achieve a reasonable yield, but they must be able to grow undisturbed. In addition, there is the harvest risk to take into account due to the later harvesting dates.
If we calculate with a yield such as that achieved in 2018 or 2022 in the EU-4 (37,5 tons per hectare), we arrive at a total volume of 20,6 million tons. If we assume the 45 tonnes/ha that was cleared last year, for example, then we arrive at 24,7 million tonnes. A considerable spread with the truth, as usual, somewhere in the middle.
Unknown territory
With a volume of 24 million tons or more, the European potato sector is in uncharted territory. Where is the balance between a healthy market and too much volume? This should become apparent in the 2024 harvest year. Over the last three years we have seen a significant increase in both contract prices and the cost price of potatoes, driven by strong demand for potatoes, sky-high costs and mutual competition.
The 2024-2025 season could stabilize this picture. In addition, the sales market for fries, which has shown strong growth for years in both volume and price, is also slowing down. That doesn't make processors worldwide nervous, but they do slow down. In the long term, the strategy is still focused on growth, but some adjustments may need to be made.