Large spread in planting date, huge differences in precipitation, and from plots that are fresh green to completely worn out. Try to distill a decent yield estimate for the EU-4 from that with trial harvests, growth curves, satellite data and what have you. Estimating the yield is difficult and that makes it extremely difficult to estimate which turn the market will take now and how the season will continue.
In general, various test harvests show that the average hectare yield in the Netherlands and Belgium (especially Wallonia) is equal to that of the harvest year 2018 and 2023. In Germany, however, the state of the crops and thus the potato harvest would be better. The further 'story' is the regrowth. That is the big unknown factor. Especially the late planted plots still have quite a lot of potential to grow, the weather conditions in the coming weeks are of course decisive for this. The nerves of growers must be strong with last year's harvest still fresh in their memory. How long do you dare to wait to go into the field with the harvester?
It is clear that a variety like Innovator is coming to an end and that little can be expected of it in terms of regrowth. A moderate yield per hectare, little coarseness and a high underwater weight, is the general picture. This can also be seen in the price development of this variety. For example, the German Reka is listing €36 for Innovator this week (19). This is a considerable price difference (35%) with the listings in Belgium, which still do not exceed €12,50 per 100 kilos.
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The current daily market is characterised by the position play of the various processors. The relatively late start of a number of processors with early potatoes is still bothering the market. Until a week ago there were still factories that were processing 'old' potatoes. A rather remarkable fact, certainly when you consider that in June and also July €60 was paid for chips potatoes and that apparently today the early ones for €12,50 are difficult or impossible to sell.
The futures market of the April 2025 contract shows a fixed picture around €30. There is buying interest around €29,50, but the supply is limited, which is prompted by the latent mood in the physical market. Most growers know that the daily market is very moderate and that there is supply above the market of all kinds of potatoes. However, if you want to buy freely tradable Innovator dry from the barn delivery spring, there is no supply below €30. €32 comes first, is what an insider noted. There is apparently confidence in a favorable development of the market for the coming months, prompted by the expectation of what kilos will ultimately be harvested. If that disappoints, there is certainly little to sell if a lot has been contracted.