In a crowded French fry market, the price holds up

It is not easy to give a good picture of the export flows for fries around the world. Not all countries are on time with the delivery of customs data, including the Netherlands and Belgium. In the first six months of this year, the ten largest export countries together shipped 2,58 million tons of finished product. That is 2% more than was done last year and thus a new record.

North America
In reality, this figure is probably a little higher, because not all EU countries have provided data on trade within the European borders. The EU-4 and Poland have sold slightly more fries. They mainly have to deal with competition from North America. With potatoes in abundance, the Americans and Canadians have been able to take back quite a bit of trade.

Canada stands out the most. In the first six months of this year, it exported 742.400 tonnes of frozen potato products. That is 7,5% more than last year. The US came to 456.300 tonnes in the same period. An increase of more than 1%. Not all EU countries have provided data, so it is a bit of a guess how these figures come out. It is probably a slight decrease.

Canadian exports
The fact that Canada (as an individual country) is by far number one in the ranking is largely due to the fact that it exports a huge amount of fries to its neighbouring country, the US. In the second quarter, 88% of all fries crossed the border. Mexico, Japan, Panama and China complete the top 5. Conversely, the US exported 'only' 12.600 tonnes of fries to Canada. This makes the country good for 5,5% of the total. Japan and Mexico are traditionally the largest buyers of American fries.

The total export value of the ten largest countries (whereby the EU is conveniently considered as one) increased by 5% in the first half of this year to €3,46 billion. That is a record. Stabilization can be seen cautiously in the prices paid for fries, although it is not yet decreasing much. Partly due to the influences from China, India and Turkey, which have exported considerably more fries this year.

French fries price up 88%
From the EU it is visible that the value is decreasing, although that is again not entirely quantifiable due to poor figures. The price of a ton of frozen fries remained stable. Compared to the second half of last year it rose a few euros, to €1.272 per ton, but looking at the first half of 2023 it is €7 less. Compare that to a price of 'only' €675 three years ago, then it is an increase in value of 88%. 

Looking at the world stage, the EU continues to offer relatively cheap products. The average of the ten countries is €1.340 per tonne. New Zealand, Brazil and India in particular are price fighters on the world market. The latter saw its export value increase by 45% in the first half of the year. Turnover from China increased by a fifth. Turkey does best with 50%. This is also reflected in the volumes. 

Back door
These are relatively modest quantities: 30.000 tonnes for Turkey, the largest part of which is exported to Russia. Since the war with Ukraine, this country has been considered a 'back door' for Europe to be able to export fries to Russia. In the first half of the year, Turkey supplied the country with almost 17.000 tonnes of fries. That is 123% more than the 7.603 tonnes that were exported in the first six months of last year. Remarkably, China is an important supplier of fries to Turkey. 5.200 tonnes in the first half of this year. The US is the largest buyer with 6.300 tonnes.

Exporters of French fries have managed to keep the volume and especially the market value high. Signs that high inflation figures are causing problems in the sales of potato products are not yet visible in the first six months. Nevertheless, this is what manufacturers are taking into account. The EU can be seen as a loser on the world stage. Nevertheless, the decrease in volume and euros remains relatively small. The lack of recent figures also blurs this picture.