The European growers' organisation NEPG expects an above-average consumption potato harvest in the EU-4 this year. A 7% larger area partly compensates for the late planting dates, emergence problems and weather extremes. Nevertheless, the organisation expects a yield that will come close to that of 2023.
During the Potato Europe held last week in Northern France, the North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG) made an estimate of the upcoming potato harvest in North-Western Europe. The extreme year 2024 follows the extreme year 2023, but this does not mean that there is a shortage of potatoes.
The area in the EU-4 has increased by 7% to 560.000 hectares, according to the NEPG. The organisation has not yet provided figures per country. This season, it assumes a hectare yield that is comparable to last year and amounts to 43,7 tonnes per hectare. Multiply the hectares and you get a yield of almost 24,5 million tonnes of potatoes. Well over the 22,66 million tonnes that were harvested last year. That is 4,1% more than the old record from 2017, when 23,5 million tonnes were harvested.
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80 different varieties planted for the French fry industry
These figures are quite remarkable when you look back at the past nine months. A planting season that lasted ten weeks, poor structure, problems with the seed potato quality and a very high disease pressure, especially from phytophthora. In order to deal with the seed potato shortage, eighty different varieties were planted for the French fry industry. Particularly in Belgium, according to the NEPG. According to the organisation, some batches are not suitable for storage due to a low underwater weight or frying quality, for example. On the other hand, blue discolouration - due to an underwater weight that is too high - or rot due to bacteria or phytophthora can also be a problem.
At the other end of the chain, the NEPG members are also issuing a warning. Processing capacity in North-Western Europe may be growing faster than consumption. At the same time, production is also increasing in North America, Asia and South America. Growers are therefore being called upon to follow demand and not to catch up. Both growers and buyers must also take the climate issue into account. How can you grow potatoes whose cost price is constantly rising, which can withstand extreme weather conditions and where biodiversity is not compromised?
More potatoes in France
Other parties are also trying to calculate the current potato harvest. For example, France continues to perform above average, if we are to believe the official figures from government service Agreste. They have adjusted the yield forecast slightly upwards and think that 7,6 million tonnes of consumption potatoes will be harvested this year. Last year that was 6,7 million tonnes (+13,4%). The area has been corrected slightly downwards to a good 178.000 hectares. Still 16% more than was planted in 2023.
Agreste now assumes an average yield of 42,6 tonnes per hectare. That is 300 kilos more than a month ago. The multi-year average is (according to the NEPG) 42,6 tonnes per hectare.
Belgian yield to average
Belgian potato trading house Bruwier published new test harvest figures this week. The penultimate of this season. Fontane comes to 47,8 tonnes per hectare net, of which three quarters 50 millimetres or coarser. That is 680 kilos more than the five-year average of 48,5 tonnes per hectare. Challenger was at 45,9 tonnes per hectare at the beginning of September, which is 3,3 tonnes less than the five-year average of 49,2 tonnes per hectare.
Despite the fact that the potatoes were planted on average late, between 10 May and 25 June, they are now still achieving a decent yield. Challenger is lagging behind in size with 65% in the 50 millimetre. The underwater weight was 370 grams and that of Fontane 414 grams. The spread in planting dates is probably also the reason that the ripening varies between 10% and 80%, Bruwier reports.
Risks
This is also clearly visible on the European potato fields. Depending on the planting date, variety, previous crop and the weather, some fields have almost completely died while other crops are still very green. Apparently, not all growers are in a hurry to spray dead, certainly not when the number of growing days has not yet been achieved and production is in full swing. After a week that is dominated by late summer, a different type of weather is expected. The current weather models even speak of an above-average wet October. Dramatic scenes such as those that are taking place in Central Europe will not occur, but a late harvesting moment does entail risks.