Rarely has it been so difficult to interpret the potato market at this time of year. Normally, around this time, you can make a list of the factors that set the tone for the coming weeks and months. The list can be compiled, but distilling from it which direction the market will take is almost impossible.
Of course, the positives in the potato market say: the 'only way is up'. Just think: the expected harvest in the southern part of the Netherlands up to Belgium (especially Wallonia) is considerably lower than the multi-year average. This does not include a price of between €12 and €19 per 100 kilos, as is being put on the table in the EU-4 countries this week. This includes a market that could rise to €30 later in the season, looking at the futures market quotation of the April 2025 contract.
The pioneers in the potato market are mainly Innovator, Agria but also Markies. Then the other varieties such as Fontane cannot lag behind. The positive person also throws the export opportunities into the battle, with an eye on countries such as Switzerland (Innovator) and Spain (Agria) that are already on the market today.
Less well shuffled cards
The doubters (who do not necessarily have to be considered negative) confirm the disappointing potato harvest in a large part of the Netherlands and Belgium, but say that the potato harvest in Germany in particular is reasonable to good. The same applies to France. Add to that the area expansion in the countries mentioned and the cards are less favourably shuffled. A price in the spring of above €30 then becomes a difficult story. Seen in this light, €20 to €25 is the highest achievable.
Will French fry sales become the determining factor?
An important factor for the mood and therefore the direction of the potato market is the sales and also pricing of the end product, chips. Voices in the market that the sales of chips are decreasing worldwide are becoming stronger. The competition in the world of the not so transparent sales of chips has only increased, which is only logical given the price increases of the last few years. Insiders report that of course all parties want to keep the price of the end product at the same level, but that this is not sustainable for much longer. In fact, the price is under pressure. This could mean that chip processors will lean back a bit in the coming period. This will of course have an impact on the mood and will not benefit it.
Now first get all the potatoes behind the planks, is the motto. The harvesting period is far from over. Many a grower still starts to sweat at the memory of last season. What seemed like a done deal turned out very differently then. Troubles around the harvest can change the mood again.