North American harvest and processing in balance

Insiders estimate that potato growers in the United States will harvest 19,15 million tons of potatoes this year. That is 4,1% less than last year, or 813.000 tons and almost equal to the five-year average. This summer, 19,37 million tons were still expected. Potato production is falling the fastest in the states of Idaho, North Dakota and Wisconsin. In Oregon, production is estimated to increase.

Smooth harvest
The potato harvest is well advanced in most states. The harvesting conditions have been generally very good, although sometimes a bit too warm. It is estimated that the remaining potatoes will be harvested in the next ten days.

In Idaho, potato production is down to 6,32 million tons. That is a decrease of almost 3% compared to last year. Washington is at 4,23 million tons, which is almost 10% less. This summer, insiders were still expecting a decrease of about 7%. High temperatures have caused the regrowth to be lower, which also applies to the growing areas in Idaho. In both states, the acreage has shrunk this year after factories choked on a top harvest in 2023.

Average yield
Due to the warm weather, regional yield differences are sometimes large. The average is assumed to be 50,65 tonnes per hectare, which is slightly lower (660 kilos) than last year and the twenty-year average.

Zooming in on French fries, the production decline here is somewhat greater. Particularly because the hectares in the growing areas were cut back considerably this spring. This applies particularly to the large states. In the other areas, the harvests can be called average and are in line with what factories are asking for. Which way things will go next year remains to be seen. In Idaho, growers are used to contract negotiations starting in October, but factories indicate that they will not come up with an offer until next month.

Heat and precipitation alternate
Across the border in Canada, the harvesters are also in operation. Here too, it is relatively warm. On Prince Edward Island, the harvest was only 10% complete at the end of September. In the province of Manitoba, 160 millimetres of precipitation caused problems last month, causing several potato plots to be lost. The rainfall also caused harvesting activities to be halted. In other parts of the province, it was too warm to harvest and irrigation was necessary.

For Canada, the current estimate is 5,69 million tons of potatoes. That is about 50.000 tons less than what was calculated this summer. This yield is 150.000 tons below last year's, which is 2,6% less. During the growing season, the picture remained that it was dry and warm in the prairie states while the east coast had abundant rain. The area is slightly larger than was harvested last year. The hectare yield is, like in the US, slightly below 2023.

Alberta, the largest province for potatoes, is expecting 1,3 million tonnes of potatoes, which is 10% less than last year. Manitoba is expecting 1,2 million tonnes (11% less) and Prince Edward Island is harvesting 1,17 million tonnes. On this island, growing conditions have been almost perfect. In the other provinces, heat has ensured that yields are not great, but certainly not bad either.

Balance
If we look at the whole of North America, the potato harvest is more in line with the needs of processors. How big that need is remains to be seen. For example, Lamb Weston announced at the beginning of October that it would immediately close a factory (good for 400.000 tons) Close and the French fry sales are slow on the continent. Mainly due to a decreased domestic demand and a larger supply from European competitors. If there is more need for potatoes in the Canadian prairie states, then they are available across the border in the US. Conversely, the chance that more Canadian potatoes will go to America is not great. The area may have shrunk, but there are enough potatoes.