In Western European countries, the potato harvest is entering its final chapter. In many places, harvesting has gone relatively smoothly, despite the often late planting dates. Sometimes the yields are good, but just as often they are also disappointing. The total harvest size could break all records, which puts the sector in uncharted territory. How many potatoes can the factories actually process?
The ingredients for a top harvest were present at the start of this season with a significantly expanding area in the EU-4. No one is talking about the alleged seed potato shortage anymore, although the consequences of this are certainly noticeable in the field. Especially in the diversity of varieties. The quality of the seed potatoes has been a bigger issue, which certainly also costs yield. Also think of cut seed potatoes that got a lot of water and started to rot. In terms of disease control, it was all hands on deck this summer.
Local flooding
Despite all the possibilities that exist in 2024: satellites, sensors, precision agriculture, etc., it is still hardly possible to have accurate figures available on time regarding the area and the yield. It is now clear how the area in the Western European countries is moving, although that is not yet definitive everywhere. In addition, there may be plots of potatoes that were ultimately never planted. The border region (roughly the area from Breda to Roermond and below from Hasselt to Antwerp) has experienced extremely high rainfall. Almost every day - since October 2023 - it has rained there, at least that is how it feels to growers. That leaves deep traces in the crops and yields.
To start with, the consumption area in the EU-4. Recently, the agricultural ministries of Germany and France have revised their figures upwards. The figures in the Netherlands date from July and the Belgian figures (Flanders and Wallonia combined, minus some seed potatoes) are also somewhat older. If you add all the figures together, you get a whopping increase of 576.550 hectares. That is still considerably more than the 560.000 hectares that NEPG reported in September. The increase in consumption potatoes amounts to no less than 57.680 hectares (+11%) compared to last year. Last year, NEPG assumed 519.583 hectares, which is 7% more area according to their figures, which date from September.
Distribution in kilos
Germany and France are the only countries to have published official yield figures this autumn. The Netherlands will follow at the end of October. For Belgium, it remains guesswork, whether a educated guess, as the English say. In the first two countries it is clear that the harvest is considerably above average. In Germany in particular, it was generally possible to plant on time. In the south there is water damage, but elsewhere it was not too bad. A larger area and a reasonable season ensure considerably more kilos. In the Netherlands this also applies to the middle and north. As mentioned, the entire south, whether you grow in Zeeland or South Limburg, is a different story. There it is simply meagre. The Gewastour trial harvest figures for Innovator confirm this story. The kilos range from 78 tons in Friesland to 30 tons in Zeeland.
In mid-September, the trial harvest figures from growers' organization VTA came to 46,5 tonnes per hectare net. If you calculate that on an area of 78.000 hectares, that means a consumption yield of 3,62 million tonnes. This is almost the same as 2022, but 15,5% more than was harvested last year (490.000 tonnes extra). It is 2,66% more than the five-year average.
In Belgium, no official figures are known either. Independent organisations such as Viaverda and Fiwap/Carah do have trial harvest figures. These come to an average of 45 tonnes per hectare (for the Fontane variety). Figures for the other varieties have yet to be published. If you calculate that, you arrive at 4,61 million tonnes of potatoes. That is 1,5% more than was harvested last year (+68.000 tonnes).
1,89 million tons of extra potatoes
Mainly due to the higher yields in Germany (+9,2%) and France (+12%), the total consumption harvest in the EU-4 amounts to 24,56 million tonnes. This is the largest yield ever and 8,4% more than was harvested last year. This amounts to almost 1,9 million tonnes of extra potatoes. Compared to the five-year average, the yield is 9,7% higher.
Finally, what about the other major potato countries? In Poland, the area has also increased, although there is some debate about the accuracy of the figures. Official figures mention 193.000 hectares, while the potato sector assumes 213.000 hectares. This also creates a yield spread of 5,8 million tonnes to 6,4 million tonnes. The truth probably lies closer to the latter figure. Earlier this autumn, 6,8 million tonnes was still assumed.
There are no figures available for the United Kingdom at all. Insiders assume 100.000 hectares, which is slightly more than last year. If you calculate with the five-year average, the harvest size comes to 4,5 million tonnes. This would mean the smallest harvest in almost fifty years.
Unknown territory
When 2017 million tonnes of potatoes were harvested in the EU-23,5 in 4, this resulted in a negative market with very low prices. The potato world has changed considerably in seven years. Processing capacity has been added and the demand for potato products is still growing worldwide. Where the current limit lies for European processors remains a guess. It may be 24,5 million tonnes, or 25 million tonnes or more. For direct delivery, the market remains steadfast at the price level of €12,50. It is mainly the futures market rate and physical bids, for delivery in April around the €30 level, that indicate that confidence is there. Also among buyers. They have no interest in a market and sector that sees it negatively and will plant less next spring.
It is still far too early to put the 2024 harvest in the books. In Belgium in particular, a considerable area remains, although this also applies to some extent to France and the south and northeast of the Netherlands. A survey by news site Vilt shows that by the end of last week, approximately half had been harvested in Belgium. Aviko estimates that percentage at 60% among their growers and at almost three quarters in France and Germany. In the Netherlands, more than 80% of the harvest was completed before the weekend, the processor reports. Considerable precipitation in parts of Belgium is making harvesting difficult, which also has consequences for growers in Brabant and Limburg in the Netherlands. A small advantage is that the temperatures are and will remain relatively high. After a changeable week, calm autumn weather is returning, giving potato growers new opportunities to bring in the last chapter of the harvest.