The calendar has now been changed to the November issue. This also means that the end of the 2024 potato harvest is in sight. It is not for nothing that they say that the last few yards are the hardest, and if the kilos are disappointing (which is the order of the day), the fun is completely gone.
The balance of what has now been harvested in the EU-4 countries, not to mention England and Poland, can be carefully drawn up. Viaverda (Belgium) came up with harvest figures last week, which assume a total harvest of 4,55 million tonnes, which is slightly lower than in 2023. Ultimately, the harvest in 2024 will be higher than the five-year average, but that is the result of the further expansion of the area. In the last ten years, the area has grown by no less than 20.000 hectares.
In the Netherlands, CBS also published figures assuming a total consumption potato harvest of 3,59 million tons compared to 3,35 million tons in 2023. Now, it is never wise to question figures, but insiders report on average considerably disappointing hectare yields in both Belgium and the Netherlands, so that the final figures could well be lower. In other words: the figures are still being questioned somewhat.
Quotes and trading are out of sync
As is known, and as is also evident from the Mars report, the potato harvest in the north of Germany and France in particular is average. This has resulted in potatoes being 'transferred' in recent weeks, particularly from Germany to the Netherlands and Belgium, to fill empty storage space. For example, for Fontane suitable for chips grown in Germany, €18 per 100 kilos was paid free of charge, depending on the transport distance. For Markies, this would be €20. In this sense, the Belgapom and Reka quotations (€12,50) for the Fontane variety are in stark contrast to what is actually happening on the potato market. However, it is expected that Belgapom will take a step up for Fontane and Challenger in the foreseeable future (i.e. when the pressure from the land is gone), €15 seems to be the next 'stop'.
The nature of a demanding market this season will be best reflected in the price development of the varieties Innovator, Agria, but also Markies. However, the supply of the 'bulk variety' Fontane is expected to have a restraining effect. A potato price around or around the contact price around mid-spring seems to be the target price. The potato futures market is a good and important indication of this. The April 2025 contract is still quoted at €29. Market parties are finding each other there, given the increasing turnover in recent weeks, which has resulted in a significant increase in the number of open contracts, which grew from 434 to 671 positions.