Not only is it foggy outside, the potato market is also shrouded in mist. It is difficult to get a realistic picture of the current potato prices. Look at the quotations in Belgium, Germany and France, or in the Netherlands at the indicative price of the Goes and LNCN exchanges, then there is little to tie it all together.
Take for example the listings in Belgium of Viaverda/Fiwap and Belgapom. It has been indicated for some time that the market tends to hold prices and on Friday 8 November the mood was even described as 'fixed' by Belgapom, but the listing remains 'normal' €12,50 per 100 kilos for Fontane and Challenger. That this is not 'normal' is evident from the market information reported by the Transaction App, among others. Based on this input, a listing for Fontane of at least €14 to €16 would do more justice to the market.
No Dutch potato listing
The fact that it has not yet been possible to arrive at a decent potato quotation in the Netherlands also causes the necessary fog. For example, the indicative price of the Goes/LNCN exchanges on Monday 5 November for farm-french fries potatoes came up with a price of up to €20. A lower end of the price range was not mentioned. Compiling a price in this way and sending it around in the knowledge that the lower end of the quotations in our neighbouring countries does not exceed €12,50, is still a way of communicating market prices with little chance of success. Growers cannot do much with that.
REKA
In that sense, Germany is currently doing better with the REKA listing by creating a listing for the different varieties, so that there is a clearer picture of what growers can expect from the Fontane variety (currently €13,50) to Innovator (currently up to €21). In that sense, the REKA listing perfectly translates the situation of the potato market in the EU-4 countries. The supply with the end of the harvest period in sight is decreasing, while the demand for good quality potatoes is clearly increasing.
For much less than €16, there is no Fontane (preferably storable) for sale. There are buyers from Belgium and the south of the Netherlands in particular who fill the 'gaps' (read: empty barns) with supply from, for example, France, Germany and the north-east of the Netherlands. The supply of varieties such as Innovator and Markies is otherwise minimal, certainly when it comes to delivery in this calendar year. The demand for, for example, Innovator delivery in the spring of 2025 differs per processor/trader in terms of positions. For example, one is not on the market based on €29 and another pays €30 without any problem.
Expectation
As the wind is blowing now, the expectation is that the potato market will reach a bottom of €2025 in the first weeks of 20, rising towards €25 for the other French fry varieties. How the further course will be (so mid-April 2025 and later in the storage season) will then also become clear. The mood in the market of the end product will have a major influence on this.