The Netherlands in particular must take a step back in the export of frozen fries, according to the latest export figures. France is rapidly growing into one of the most important players in Europe in the field of potatoes and fries. This is reflected in the figures.
Unfortunately, the export figures, from the Harmonised Trade System, lag several months behind practice. In August, the EU-5 (the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France and Poland) exported more than 508.000 tonnes of frozen fries. This is almost the same as in August 2023, but the smallest volume in five months. Over a period of twelve months, exports are now almost 2% behind compared to a year earlier.
Excellent margins
Belgium, France and Poland saw their exported volume increase in August, while the Netherlands and Germany both had to surrender 15% in volume compared to a year earlier. It is striking that it is still possible to increase the price per ton of fries, despite the fact that the cost price has usually not increased that much. Processors are therefore able to achieve excellent margins.
With almost 253.000 tonnes, Belgium is in the lead in August, which is 2,6% more than the same month in 2023. Over a period of twelve months, Belgian exports are slightly behind, but not by much. For the Netherlands – number two – things are a little different. The volume of 145.300 tonnes of fries has fallen by 17% and over a whole year, exports are 8% lower.
That doesn't come as a big surprise. The processing figures already showed that in August 5% less potatoes were processed in our country and that is also reflected in the export of end product. Incidentally, that is a long-term trend. Processing was also below average in July and September. In October, that changed somewhat and the volume moved towards the multi-year average.
France the winner
Germany is the other loser on the French fries market with an export that is almost 16% lower. Over a whole year, their export volume is 6% lower. The big winner, when you look at it in percentage terms, is France. In terms of volume, the country comes in third place with 60.500 tonnes, which is half more than was exported last year. Over twelve months, the French export volume is a fifth higher. This puts the country head and shoulders above the other four.
The reason for this is twofold: on the one hand, the processing capacity has increased in the country. Especially now that the Clarebout factory in Dunkirk is running at full speed for the first time. On the other hand, the country also supplies relatively cheap fries compared to its competitors. However, it should be noted that in the potato world, national borders are blurring; a Belgian company is building a factory on French soil and processing potatoes there that have been grown in both countries.
Expensive fries
The Netherlands may lag behind in volume, but with an average export price of €1.400 per ton in August, it sells relatively expensive fries. The price level has even increased by €84 per ton. Belgium remains the cheapest supplier with €1.267 per ton. France is just a little bit higher. The most expensive fries come from Germany, with an average of €1.421 per ton. Compare those prices with two seasons ago: then the average was €851 compared to €1.286 now. An increase of more than 50%. This is also clearly reflected in the financial figures of processors, which are very healthy.
Despite the processors' reports that exports are starting to slow down a bit, the figures do not yet fully support them. Yes, volumes have dropped slightly this summer, but they still have nothing to be ashamed of. They are still managing to increase product prices. Dutch companies are focusing more on higher-value products, which are often sold to the QSR segment (quick service restaurant). The Belgians, and partly also France, are more interested in large volumes of bulk fries for private labels, among others. That comes with a different price tag.
World stage
Where demand has actually decreased is difficult to find in the figures. There is more competition on the world market. From North America, but to a lesser extent also from South America and Asia. They are initially meeting their own market demand, but are also exporting more and more. Compared to Europe, these are modest volumes, but they are growing. It is a market trend that European processors are keeping a close eye on and are also responding to. For example, by opening their own factories in India, China and the US.