Exporters of French fries in the United States are struggling to hold their ground in a highly competitive global market. Despite having harvested more than enough potatoes, the country is losing a lot of ground, according to the latest export figures.
In October – the most recent month for which data is available – the US exported more than 73.000 tonnes of frozen potato products, mainly French fries. That’s a 5% decline from the same month in 2023. Total exports were down almost 2,5% over the XNUMX months (through October) compared to the same period before.
Result negative
It was mainly Japan, one of the country's largest customers, that failed to show up in October. A fifth fewer fries went that way. Mexico, the largest buyer with 20.000 tons, did buy 15% fewer fries. South Korea also accounted for 25% more volume (6.500 tons). The entire export list is a matter of pluses and minuses. So the bottom line is a decline.
This also affects the financial figures. In October, exports were worth over $120 million, which is 9% less than a year ago. Over a period of twelve months, exports are still marginally in the black. Trade with Mexico, Japan and South Korea are all still showing a plus.
High prices
An average of $1.653 had to be paid for a ton of frozen fries from the US in October. Converted, that is €1.574. The price of the product has dropped slightly, but over a whole year the level is still 4% higher than a year earlier. That is probably exactly where the shoe pinches. The European price level is simply a (considerably) lot lower. Combine that with good potato availability here and you have a lot of competition on the world market.
Given the above, it is remarkable that the import level of frozen potato products is higher. In October, this was almost 133.000 tonnes, which is 15.000 tonnes more than was imported in September and a good 6% more than a year earlier. Canada supplies more than 80% of all these products. The neighbouring country saw its export to the US grow by 5% this season. Belgium comes next. Over a period of twelve months, the volume has fallen by 3%, it still concerns a respective 170.600 tonnes.
Less Dutch product
When we talk about American imports, the Netherlands is the one that comes into the picture negatively. In October, our exports to the country halved and over twelve months, the volume shrank by almost a fifth. You would think that the price of fries is the culprit here too. However, Dutch products were sold for an average of €1.450, while those from Belgium averaged €1.556. Belgian fries were also considerably more expensive in October. The Netherlands probably simply has to deal with a lot of competition. In addition to Belgium, there is also competition from emerging countries such as Egypt and Italy.
As mentioned, American potato growers have achieved a good yield this year. However, there is still sufficient demand to import products. The country has relatively low food inflation. According to the USDA, this will amount to 2,3% for the whole of 2024. In addition, Americans do like fries. On an annual basis, they consume an average of 13,6 kilos of fries per person. Incidentally, this is relatively 'modest' compared to the Netherlands, where the average is 18 kilos.
Food culture
80% of the 13,6 kilos the American consumer eats outside the home in fast food chains. They see their turnover figures decrease slightly this year, but it remains a huge market. In addition, home delivery of meals, including fries, has become commonplace in the American food culture.
French fries are not the only potato segment that has lost ground in October. The total export of potatoes and potato products amounted to 2,7 million tonnes in October. That is a decrease of almost 10% compared to last year. The export of table potatoes increased by 8%, but that of chips and dried products decreased, as did frozen products.