In the week before Christmas, you would expect processors to prepare for the planned shutdowns that many factories are facing. However, the prices show no sign of rest. This week, the DCA EU-4 Potato Index rose by 27% to the highest point of this season.
Now that the harvest is definitely behind the shelves and most problem batches have been processed, farmers do not seem to want to open their barns before the end of the year. Certainly due to the rising trend in the market, you see that suppliers automatically become wait-and-see, after all, waiting every week yields money.
It is mainly Belgium that has cast the anchor of the market with Fontane. Apparently, the Belgian processors have their positions well sorted and they do not have to enter the market super-actively. What helps is that Fontane is the largest variety and that the area expansion in Germany, Belgium and France is also mainly based on Fontane. As a result, the Belgian processors are more comfortable in their seats than a number of Dutch processors.
Dynamic potato market
The Dutch dynamics are particularly striking. The demand for Innovator is turning the entire market upside down and is driving other varieties up in the price spiral. A Dutch processor is eagerly looking for Innovator potatoes for his obligation to the fast food chains. What doesn't help is that the area of Innovator has shrunk in the past year, partly because it is a difficult potato to grow.
In addition, the yield of Innovator is lower than average due to the extreme weather conditions of the past season. Innovator yields will therefore not reach their five-year average. Due to the low yield, there is also little freely available Innovator available. Innovator is therefore the top of the market with a €30-plus price.
This shortage will probably not be solved because fast food fries cannot simply be made with another variety. The expectation is that this variety will pull the market until the end of the season and will also ensure that the lower end is pulled along to higher levels.
No shortage
In terms of figures, there does not have to be a shortage of potatoes in the EU-4. Especially now that it appears that the sales of fries are stagnating, in theory the end of the season should be possible. However, due to the imbalance in the market of the different varieties, the sentiment will remain positive for the time being.