The beloved fast food variety Innovator is further separating itself from bulk varieties on the potato market. Even the premium variety Agria has to let down a feather when it comes to pricing. The entire market is special, by the way. The increases follow each other in rapid succession.
Now that we know that PotatoNL will resume compiling an 'official' Dutch French fries potato quotation on January 6, the collaborating exchanges LNCN and Goes decided to go out with fireworks. On Monday December 23, they published an indicative price of €20 to €37,50 per 100 kilos for French fries potatoes. An increase of €7,50 compared to the week before. It should be noted that this transaction applies to Innovator.
Such a price is quite special. It was Farm Frites who not so long ago (12 December) came out with a tender and paid this price for delivery in March and €30 for delivery immediately. So a lot can happen in ten days.
Top segment
It will be interesting to see what the countries around us will do with their Innovator prices. The German Reka is already quite high at €30. Certainly in comparison with the Belgians and French, who are stuck at €20 and €25. This probably also includes a difference between bulk fries and the top segment, in which the aforementioned Agria also operates. In the Netherlands, the Innovator was not so long ago still under political fireIt is clear that the market does not care about opinions.
For two years in a row, the European potato price followed a fixed course. The season started far below the cost price level, only to recover during the storage season and remain stable for a long time. The price twice rose to €60 in the last weeks of the old season. Incidentally, the price also peaked last year in the last week of the year. There is a strong chance that we will see a repeat and whether this border will be broken as easily as the €20 barrier.
Futures market rises
The question now is how the market will develop in the first weeks of 2025. With a very thin turnover, the futures market has clearly recovered from its valley. On Monday 23 December, the April contract closed at €29,80, after having gradually increased last week. With a physical market that is developing rapidly, the question is how the price will take shape in April and whether the physical potato price will continue to increase.
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An important indicator and tastemaker for the market are the potato contracts for the new year. The two largest Belgian processors, leading in Europe, have now made their strategy public. Both are focused on stability. The French fry market may have cooled down a bit, but they certainly do not need fewer potatoes. As expected, contract prices in the field segment are falling slightly, while long storage is encouraged. The expectation is that the Dutch processors will only come out with their contracts in the new year and will follow the Belgian line.
Taking advantage
With the current and future contract prices, potato growers can create a stable basis for cultivation, which will hopefully be supplemented by a good free market price. Of course, you must have free kilos to be able to profit from that market. That is a challenge for some growers in the current season, because the yields vary greatly and are not always good. Know your cost price, cover risks and keep room to profit from a free market remains the motto.