The developments in the Dutch potato cultivation are at least remarkable. For several years in a row, the total harvest of consumption potatoes has not exceeded the multi-year average of 3,6 million tonnes.
Last season too, there were various reasons why the CBS figure had to be adjusted downwards again (to 3,31 million tonnes, -8%). However, it is not the case that the area in the Netherlands is decreasing (see graph below), but it seems a given that the kilos to be harvested will be disappointing in one way or another. The late springs of the growing years 2023 and 2024 will have played a role in this.
Disappointing potato harvest
The fact that the total Dutch potato harvest has been disappointing for several years has not stopped the chip factories on Dutch soil from significantly expanding their processing capacity. The need for raw materials has primarily resulted in a huge increase in contract prices. As a result, the share of free potatoes has decreased even further. As a result, in years with a low volume of tonnes per hectare, such as this and last season, the market price can rise to unprecedented levels without much of a struggle. Last summer, the last free potatoes of the 2023 harvest year were traded at €60 per 100 kilos. This season too, the market price does not seem to be able to be slowed down with an average of around €30 per 100 kilos, while the largest part of the storage season is still ahead of us.
Growth in processing capacity
However, the article that appeared this week Boerenbusiness appeared in relation to the contract price of Lamb Weston for the 2025/26 season reported that for the first time this decade, processing capacity is greater than the demand for end products. What the effect of this will be on the free market and contract prices in the long term, time will tell. Processors can at least manage the flow of raw materials better, which will not be beneficial for market price development in principle.
Cultivation is shifting
Another observable fact is that the area in the Netherlands, but also in Belgium, seems to be at the top. It is especially in France where the area of French fries potatoes has increased considerably. Also in Germany, where the total area of potatoes has been more stable in recent years, there is a clear shift in the area of starch and table potatoes in favour of French fries potatoes. The shift in the area of potatoes within the EU-4 countries may increase further in the coming years if it turns out that the difference in cost price will continue to play a role.
Cost is not an issue
The Dutch Arable Farmers' Union (NAV) stated that given the further increase in costs for potato cultivation, the contract price should increase by €2025 to €2 per 3 kilos in 100, partly because yields have been disappointing. It is now known that the processors have not gone along with this. Perhaps for the better, because the competition between growers from the various EU-4 countries would be further intensified, possibly resulting in a further shift of the area to Germany and France.