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European French fries exports show clear decline

30 January 2025 - Niels van der Boom

The sales of frozen fries from Europe must clearly drop a bit, according to the most recent export data. For some time now, fries producers have been stressing that it is more difficult to sell their products worldwide. Prices also show a slight decline.

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In total, the EU-5 exported 494.000 tonnes of frozen fries in October. That is 3,3% less than a year earlier and 1,8% less than the previous month (9.145 tonnes less). The figures from the Harmonised Trade System are available with a delay of several months. It is the first time since March last year that less than 500.000 tonnes of fries were exported by the five countries.

Belgians deliver in
Belgium shows the strongest fluctuation in October. This country also had to give up the most, with 15% less export compared to October 2023. In August and September, Belgian exports actually recovered, but in one month they decreased by 10,7%. Good for almost 28.000 tons less product.

The Netherlands exported more product, after having lost a little in recent months. The volume in October was 8.720 tonnes higher than in September (+6%). Compared to a year ago, Dutch exports were 2,5% lower. France is the only one of the EU-5 to continue to perform very positively. Exports were even 80% higher than last year, with almost 64.000 tonnes of fries. This has everything to do with the brand new Clarebout factory in Dunkirk, which is now running at full speed.

UK saves market
European exporters are fortunate that neighbouring country the United Kingdom was very active on the market in October. 13% more product went there than was the case in 2023. France, number two on the export list, actually bought a third less product. In percentage terms, the biggest increase is Belgium, which imported more than double the volume. This probably concerns fries produced in France – for and by Belgian companies – that are stored in Belgium for export.

Compared to a year earlier, the average sales price per tonne decreased slightly, to €1.303 per tonne. That is a decrease of 1,3% or €17. Exporters are still able to keep prices at a fairly high level. It is slightly lower than the 2023/24 season, but the difference is relatively small. As a result, the decline in financial value is not very large. Compared to a year ago, the export value is almost 5% lower. Belgium shows the largest decline. France is the largest riser, but in terms of price per tonne the largest faller.

The 5-month total for the EU-6,05 in October was 1,5 million tonnes, 6,14% lower than in the same period before, when XNUMX million tonnes were exported.

Trend is lower
Preliminary figures for November show that the export of the EU-27 has fallen again. Countries in the Middle East, South America and Asia in particular took less European fries. More product was exported to North America.

French fries producers in the Netherlands and Belgium assume that this slightly downward trend will continue to manifest itself in the coming months. That is also one of the main reasons why the contract prices for the coming growing year will hardly change. French fries buyers are looking closely at the cultivation and processing in Europe. With sufficient acreage, production and processing, they have something to choose from again. As a result, they are reluctant to place orders.

Shrinkage at fast food chains
The question is whether the consumption of fries is actually shrinking. Looking at the figures of globally operating fast food chains, this is indeed the case. McDonald's spoke of a 1% drop in sales during their last financial quarter. At fast food company Yum, owner of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, the drop is even 4,5%. Popular fast food chains are struggling with the ever-increasing inflation, which is pricing their meals out of the market. As a result, fewer people visit the so-called quick service restaurants (QSR) and choose to fry, air fry or prepare other dishes at home. A clear increase in the volume of fries bought in supermarkets is not immediately visible.

What certainly plays a role in the EU-5 countries is the increased global competition. A combination of factors has ensured that countries all over the world are trying to scale up their French fry production at a rapid pace. Disappointing harvests, significantly higher costs and protectionist measures all ensure that this is happening at a much faster pace than in the ten to fifteen years before. Countries such as the Netherlands and Belgium are highly dependent on the global market. Factories here are concerned about this. The same applies to tariff walls, a favourite threat of President Trump in particular.

Waiting
The European French fries market is looking for a new balance. New factories have been built, lines have been added and optimised. The exact size of that capacity remains guesswork. Companies are not revealing their cards. With a consumer who consumes fewer French fries and a buyer who is waiting, the processors are waiting to see what happens. This does not mean that they are sitting still, on the contrary. They are still positive for the medium term, as evidenced by the growth plans that still dominate. This is especially the case in Northern France and Germany.

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