Looking at the average market price in the EU-4 countries – the DCA EU-4 Potato Index currently stands at €32,45 (an increase of €1,58) – the question is whether and when the next step can be taken. The average market price has risen more than sharply in recent weeks.
For example, the DCA EU-4 Potato Index was still €2024 in mid-November 15,35 and has since increased by more than 100%! It is likely that 'somewhere' in the story there will be a period of stabilization or perhaps a correction. The Belgapom quotation of Friday 7 February hinted at a 'calm' mood on a more stable market. Nevertheless, especially the Belgian trade, especially in the southwest of the Netherlands, paid up to €32 per 100 kilos for Fontane last week, for delivery in April this would have been €36 in the trade.
Currently (so end of this week) the buying wave seems to be over for a while and there is little more to report. Observing trade is an issue these days. The part of freely tradable volume is so limited that the movement of the market is based on little. Insiders are therefore looking with amazement at the market price development of the last few weeks, after all it is based on little to almost nothing in transactions. The conclusion is that the little freely tradable product that is still there, ensures an enormously volatile market; just think: a 100% increase in the market price in twelve weeks!
How further?
The question of how the potato market will develop in the coming months is difficult to answer. As mentioned, the market is volatile and can therefore jump in all directions, so up but also down. Given the fact that growers have little free product to offer and the two previous seasons have seen the market rise to an even higher level, this provides the fixed undertone.
Export is declining
Experience has shown that spring, early or late, has an influence on the mood and thus on the price development. The mood will have to continue to come from the Belgian processors. In the Netherlands, with one exception when it comes to Innovator, it is indicated that there is sufficient in position. Furthermore, it does not help in terms of mood that the export sales of varieties such as Agria to Southern Europe are not going very well at the moment. The export sales are not functioning at the moment as they did last season. In short, enough arguments to reason the potato market in all directions, but in the end we will see.