Both the potato area and the harvest grew by approximately 7% last year. Despite the larger supply, prices remain high. In February, €30 was quoted, double that of November. NEPG calls the price increase unexpected and thinks that this could have consequences for the coming season and the market.
With the market booming and alternatives limited, many growers are considering further expansion, but NEPG warns of risks. Yields per hectare have been declining for years, leading to higher costs. In addition, seed potato prices are expected to increase by 10-15% compared to 2023, while the contract prices remain stable. Some processors use higher tare rates to limit contamination.
There are also uncertainties on export markets. Export of frozen potato products can be affected by trade policy in the US and competition from countries such as China, India, Egypt and Turkey. NEPG warns that a larger potato area without sufficient demand can lead to overproduction.
Furthermore, climate change and stricter environmental legislation play a role. Restrictions in crop protection and soil contamination such as nematodes and wireworms hamper cultivation. Stricter nitrogen regulations also increase the pressure. NEPG emphasizes that growers should not expand blindly, but should follow the demand from the industry closely.