After the almost unstoppable rise of the last weeks in which the potato market (DCA EU-4 Potato Index) rose from €15,50 in November to €32,50 this week (week 7), the advance seems to have been halted for the time being. The current mood in the market feels calm, which in itself is not strange considering the price increase of the previous weeks and with the knowledge that we are living in the month of February.
Market developments in previous years show that February is never a really spectacular month. The market often makes a somewhat 'hiccuping' movement at this time of year. This year is no different, as it turns out. Market prices last week for direct delivery Fontane ranged from a maximum of €28 per 100 kilos in the sales areas above the major rivers to €30 in the southwest of the Netherlands, Belgium and northern France. Reportedly, €32, paid earlier this year by the Belgian trade, is no longer included.
Dutch processors
Especially the Dutch processors would not need any extra free volume, outside the regular contract quantity. They settle on the already mentioned Fontane price levels rising to €33 for Markies and a maximum of €35 for Innovator. Growers seem to be doing business after all, in contrast to a few weeks ago, also because with the premium for later delivery (storage fee) a good price still rolls out.
The question is, and time will tell, whether the market has been misled in recent weeks. Especially the Belgian processors have been buying heavily for market prices of up to €35 for Fontane in particular, delivery April. In many cases these potatoes have already been loaded or will be loaded in the short term. The pushing forward of potatoes could indicate a shortage later in the storage season. This idea created a permanent undertone in the market.
Different scenario
However, it could also be that the buyers have learned from the scenario of the past two seasons (market above the €40 level) and that work has been/is being done on the stock of end product. You could see that as an expensive solution for the moment, but if later in the season one has to enter the market less actively and thus possibly forces a lower market price, then that could be worth the 'investment'. The reality is of course that the storage season is still long and that the total stock of potatoes in the EU-4 does not have enough. Adjusting a market may be possible temporarily, but difficult to maintain, but strong nerves will be needed again this potato year.