The consumption area in North-West Europe is heading for a strong growth in 2025. Potato growers were happy with the cultivation last winter and have put maximum effort into this crop. From the end of February, the steering went perpendicular in terms of mood. Could that have an effect on previously made plans?
In 2024, the area under consumption potatoes in the EU-4 countries (the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany) reached a record of 575.705 hectares. Never before in recent history had so much been planted. All countries showed growth. Cultivation expanded in Germany and France in particular. This increase of 11% is considerably more than the 2% average for both the five-year and ten-year trends.
Germany and France
This year too, the expected growth percentage is closer to 11% than 2%. There is discussion about what the exact increase will be. Some mention percentages of 5% to 6%, while other insiders come well above 10%. Mentioning one percentage for the EU-4 is not fair. The growth will most likely come from the aforementioned two countries again, where most land is available to expand in consumption potatoes. A similar picture with 2024 is therefore quite plausible.
The caveat here is that Germany, after last year's sharp increase, is probably taking it easier this year. France has seen a huge increase in its processing capacity and there are still plenty of construction plans. That is different for our eastern neighbours.
Last season there was the story of a shortage of seed potatoes. In the end the impact on the area turned out to be small. A lot more seed potatoes were cut, unpopular sizes were planted and other varieties. This year the availability is good. This is not yet reflected in the NAO export figures. In January 43% less was exported to Belgium. 22% less to Germany and 11% more to France. This difference may have been made up in February, or countries themselves have more seed potatoes available.
600.000 hectares
Below are three scenarios for the area development in the EU-4, calculated with 5%, 8% and 10% growth. In all cases, the total area is well above 600.000 hectares and that is again a record. The processing capacity has also increased considerably in the last five years, but production and processing are currently out of balance. Especially when the sales of end production are also disappointing, as is currently the case. There are also the varieties to take into account. For example, Innovator can grow more than Fontane, where there is already oversupply.
| Screenwriting | Area | Growth hectares | Growth million tons |
| 5% increase | 604.490 | 28.785 | 1,21 |
| 8% increase | 621.761 | 46.056 | 1,94 |
| 10% increase | 633.275 | 57.570 | 2,42 |
You can't make fries from hectares, but you can from potatoes. Last autumn, the average production was 42,3 tonnes per hectare, which is almost equal to the ten-year average and slightly higher than the five-year average of 41,67 tonnes/ha. If you look at the twenty-year average, you won't be far outside this bandwidth with 42,5 tonnes/ha. 2017 in particular stands out in the graph, with an average production above 50 tonnes/ha.
1 to 2,5 million tons
If you use the ten-year average, then in theory you are talking about 1,2 million tons of potatoes with a 5% increase in area. With 8% you are already almost at 2 million tons and with 10% almost at 2,5 million tons. Whatever lines have been added, that is simply far too many potatoes for the current processing and sales.
Of course, the 2025 growing season could turn out very differently, with a yield like in 2022 or 2018. You could even say that the potato sector needs this to avoid a slump. It is often said that yields per hectare decrease when you look at the multi-year period. However, that is not really apparent from the graph. There are fluctuations, but in the last five years there were four with an average harvest.
Cutting in volumes
Potato growers have also absorbed the above. Despite a rapidly rising free potato price, this year a fixed price contract was chosen en masse. So much so that in Belgium and France the volumes are being cut. Because processors also do this with trading parties, they are also obliged to go back on previously entered into agreements. For growers who thought they had a reliable basis, this is a sour apple. At the same time, it is good for the sector that this is happening. The EU-4 cannot use a major expansion now.
The percentages mentioned are based on previous statements from parties in the sector. Since we are still early in the season, and the first potatoes have only just been planted, entrepreneurs can make choices. The final area increase may also be lower than previously thought. Growers with free potatoes may think twice before planting an extra plot on their own account. Even if there is land available. The cost price is also at a historically high level, which means that gambling may be expensive this year. The lack of alternative crops with a profitable balance is zero. That contributes to the drive to grow potatoes. Factories have been very successful in getting growers enthusiastic, but here too the trees do not reach the sky.