Top or flop year? This is what you need to know about planting and area

The key points in this analysis:

• Spring is more of a pleasure than a burden for potato growers
• Leg progress Netherlands 65%, Belgium 50%, France 65%, Germany 50%
• Area growth around 5% for EU-4 plausible
• More free potatoes due to availability of soil and seed potatoes
• Drought only a concern from May onwards

A dry March and April are not an exception in the Netherlands. April is on average the driest month of the year. March had an average of 6 millimeters of precipitation in the Netherlands and 7,8 millimeters in Belgium. That is exceptionally dry. In addition, it was warmer than average during the day. This makes the spring in our country the driest in 1906 and in Belgium even the driest since 1893.

Benefit for legs
If we look at potatoes alone, the drought is more of a blessing than a curse. Planting got off to a good start early in March thanks to the good conditions, which meant that all the early potatoes went into the ground on time. Very different from the past two springs. Particularly in the southwest of our country, on the lighter soils, a considerable amount was planted in March. Arable farmers who did not want to sow, due to the lack of precipitation, often sought their salvation in planting.

According to our own estimate, about half of all French fries potatoes were in the ground until this week. The percentages per growing region vary, from 90% on the light soil in the southwest to 25% to 30% in the east and northeast. Growers sometimes also use the conditions to first improve plots. Especially if something was damaged there last autumn. Filling in depressions, grading and turning. Waiting a day or so longer is not so bad this spring, or so the idea goes. There are also growers who are forced to wait because the seed potatoes are not there yet. This is mainly due to the transport capacity.

Delay due to cold
In the other EU-4 countries, planting also started early and proceeded quickly. According to Viaverda, more than 1% of the area was in the ground on 10 April and that pace has not slowed down since then. We assume that 50% has already been planted. In Germany, the picture is similar. There, growers sometimes waited a bit because they found it too cold at night. In East Germany, the mercury dropped to minus 6 at night last week. In the meantime, planting is in full swing. France was lagging behind a bit, but has now made up a lot of ground with around 65% in the ground.

It is clear that more potatoes are being planted this spring. A survey conducted among 130 Flemish and 87 Walloon growers by Viavera, Fiwap and Carah shows that in Belgium a 6% increase in area is being taken into account. Good for 6.000 hectares. This growth is mainly in the main harvest of French fries potatoes. Fontane is growing again, but the Belgians are also more enthusiastic about Innovator and Agria. In Flanders, the growth is considerably less, and sometimes there is even a slight shrinkage, while in the French-speaking part there is still room for growth. This is not so strange if you look at the areas of grains, beets, flax and other crops that yield a lower return.

An area growth of around 5% is what insiders are counting on for the EU-4. This is probably a little more in Northern France and a little less in the Netherlands. The big question in our country is to what extent land from dairy farming is being converted to potato cultivation. This also depends on the region. It is a trend that is mentioned, but not recognized by everyone. The lack of financially attractive alternatives in particular ensures that potato cultivation has the best cards. For those who have the opportunity, French fries potatoes are sometimes exchanged for seed potatoes, while in the last three years it was the other way around.

Area above 600.000 hectares?
Last year, the area in the EU-4 grew by almost 11% to 575.710 hectares, which is a record. 5% growth would be good for 28.785 hectares, which would push the area above 600.000. This puts European potato cultivation and processing in uncharted territory. This season has already made it clear that cultivation and processing are not entirely in balance. Especially when demand is not keeping up. Everything is (literally) built on growth. 

The current stocks of potatoes in Europe show that processing is certainly not standing still. For example, recent Belgian figures (reference date 1 April) show that there were 1,82 million tonnes of potatoes in the barns as last year. It is mainly the free potatoes that processors ignore. They use pre-determined tonnes. Only at Innovator does this rule not apply, where demand exceeded supply until recently.

Bonnefooi
Quite late in the winter, the processing industry in Belgium decided not to fix all the potato volume offered at a fixed price. This also has consequences for cultivation in Northern France. Whether this is reflected in the area figure remains to be seen. There are indications that growers would rather grow potatoes at their own risk than not grow potatoes at all. The land is often available. They certainly do not want to say no to rented land. Seed potatoes are widely available and often at more attractive prices than those for which they fixed last winter. The current mood mainly has an impact on the pricing of the 2024 harvest and not yet on the next harvest.

In mid-April, we will experience more changeable weather in North-Western Europe. So far, no more than 5 to 10 millimeters have fallen. There is also not much significant rain in the pipeline for the longer term. It will remain limited to a few millimeters, with the temperature trend being relatively flat during the day. At night, there is no more night frost. 

Effects
We have seen before that the spring was very dry and planting was done quickly, for example 2022, 2017, 2014, 2011 and 2007. The circumstances will only have an impact during tuber formation and afterwards. Experience from previous years shows that a dry spring certainly has its advantages and does not necessarily mean a poor yield. In addition, the structure of the soil is generally good and little has been driven in the subsoil. The disease pressure is also lower than, for example, last spring. This month, the drought is mainly an advantage for growers, but in May that picture can turn around.