A new estimate from the French Agreste, part of the Ministry of Agriculture, shows that the potato area in France is expected to decrease somewhat in 2025, namely by 1,4%. That is quite a difference with the earlier expectations reported in March, which assumed an area increase of no less than 11%!
Apparently, both processors and growers have hit the brakes hard in recent months. The heavy thunderclouds above the current potato market, but also the less positive outlook for the 2025/26 season, are responsible for this. A significant difference with especially the potato growers in Belgium and the Netherlands is that the French grower does not grow potatoes without a contract. In other words, the strategy is: no fixed price contract, then no potatoes in the ground. The latter seems to be the case.
Area remains above five-year average
Based on figures from early April, the area for mid-late and storage potatoes is provisionally estimated at 169.100 hectares, a decrease of 1,4% compared to the record year 2024, when 171.500 hectares were grown. Although there would be an unexpectedly small decrease for the 2025 harvest year compared to the 2024 harvest year, the area still remains well above the five-year average (+7,25%).
For example, the area fluctuated between 2021 and 2023 hectares in the period 151.000-154.000. The significant expansion in 2024, with an increase of 11% compared to the 2023 harvest year, was mainly driven by growing French fry production and favorable contract conditions for growers. The contract conditions were also favorable for the 2025 harvest year, but French fry sales are starting to plateau. That is why the handbrake is being pulled.