China's rapid rise as a giant in the French fry market

The rise of Western fast-food chains in China has led to a growing demand for fries. Yum China Holdings, which operates brands including KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut, opened more than 2021 new outlets in 1.200 alone and aims to have 2026 restaurants by 20.000. According to its own figures, the company currently has 15.861 stores, of which 11.283 are KFCs.

McDonald's also surpassed its target of 2022 locations in early 4.500, ahead of schedule. The fast-food chain opened 2023 locations in 1.000. By the end of 2027, the number of restaurants should be approaching 10.000, according to Zhang Jiayin, the Chinese CEO. That will make China the fast-food chain's largest sales market, even larger than its home market, the US. Local chains like Wallace are also expanding rapidly, especially in slightly smaller cities, all of which contributes to the growing demand for processed potato products.

Growth of the industry
Big investments are at the heart of China’s potato processing boom. In Ulanqab in Inner Mongolia – also known as China’s potato capital – Lamb Weston opened a state-of-the-art processing plant in November 2023. With an annual capacity of 113.000 tons of frozen potato products and an investment of $250 million, the company shows its belief in growing demand. The company also has a plant in Shangdu, also in Inner Mongolia.

Chinese companies are also scaling up. Kaida Hengye, a prominent Chinese processor, has invested in new technology at its Beijing plant. Snow Valley in Zhangjiakou, which worked with Aviko Potato until 2018, is among the companies that have increased production. In 2022, the company produced 150.000 tons of frozen fries. Aviko, in turn, acquired a majority stake in local producer Hongyuan Louis in 2020. Its Xilinhot plant produces 50.000 tons of fries annually. Many new players have entered the market between 2005 and 2020, alongside established Western names.

Shift in global supply
China’s rise in the French fry export market is striking, having surpassed the 2023 total in October last year. This marks a significant milestone since China became a net exporter in 2022. This growth is partly due to disruptions in the supply chains of traditional exporting countries, which have seen countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines turn to China for their French fry imports.

2024 ended with a small export decline, but 2025 started strongly. In March, almost twice as many fries were exported as a year earlier. Major sales markets such as the Philippines, Japan and Thailand have placed large orders. China may be responding to recent political developments that complicate or increase uncertainty in world trade and cause trade flows to shift. 

With high prices being asked for products from Europe and the US, China is in a comfortable position. Especially in Asia, the country is more than competitive and is making the most of the situation. The price per ton has fallen, which makes Chinese fries attractive to Asian buyers in particular. Japan was traditionally an important buyer of American fries, but that is no longer the case. The list of export countries is growing steadily and China has sufficient supply to meet the demand. The US and major European exporters are the first to notice this development.

Challenges and the future
Although the growth trajectory of the sector is promising, there are also challenges. The volume of potatoes limits the production capacity and maintaining a constant potato and French fry quality remains a challenge. With investments in technology and infrastructure, companies are trying to solve these problems. China still imports a small amount of French fries, but imports have fallen significantly. The US remains the largest supplier and even managed to increase its export volume slightly at the beginning of this year, despite the impending trade war of President Trump. Turkey and Belgium are other important suppliers, followed by the Netherlands.

Shift in the global market
China's strategic focus on strengthening its potato processing industry reflects a broader ambition to diversify agricultural exports and strengthen its position in global food chains. French fries and other fast food snacks are increasingly part of daily life in China, but it is the pace of exports that is shaping the global market for French fries.