Potato market drops through the bottom

Belgapom took another step down today (Friday 9 May), now from €2,50 to a mere €7,50, no less than €22,50 lower than two months ago (Belgacom quoted €7 in week 30). Last week, €9 was already paid in Belgium, free delivery (particularly Fontane). Belgapom remained unchanged at €10. This week, the correction came. The top of the market (if you could even call it a top) is determined by the varieties Markies and Innovator, which are traded for €12,50 per 100 kilos. You would now assume that the bottom has been reached, although the number of rejections is increasing, which means that the payout price for the delivered potatoes will be even lower. In other words: what does a quotation say then?

Corona
It seems like corona time, as can be heard in the corridors, with the understanding that there is currently no reason to think of an improved market mood and that still creates a more than uncomfortable feeling. One reason, out of sight of the growers, is the much lower price of the end product. Due to the high market prices of the past two seasons and the much higher contract price, the margin is apparently under considerable pressure, which apparently does not do the market price of raw material any good and that is still an understatement!

High purchase price is a warning sign
The conclusion is that there are currently few bright spots in the market. Processors have contracted so much that they cannot use free potatoes. In addition, as previously indicated, the sales of fries are difficult and the prices of fries are falling due to increasing global competition. Processors in the EU indicate that we have gone too far in terms of the purchase price of potatoes, which is already a warning sign when it comes to the contract prices for the 2026 harvest year.  

End on a positive note
In order to conclude the analysis with some ray of hope, the current weather picture can be mentioned. The drought is now starting to take on serious forms. This does not yet cause problems for potatoes, the crops will now start to root well. However, it can become a problem if the drought continues for a longer period, especially for early cultivation. Some significant rain within the next three weeks is certainly desirable, otherwise it will be at the expense of the yield. In that case, it could perhaps lead to a revival of the market price of the old harvest. A longer-lasting drought will lead to possible irrigation bans, which will lead to a completely different view of the market, regardless of the sales and price of chips. One way or another, potatoes always grow outside and that ultimately determines what the total volume in the EU-4 countries will be.