How dry is it in the potato growing areas?

For the Netherlands, the precipitation deficit has now increased to 87 millimeters. The KNMI expects this to increase to almost 140 millimeters in the coming weeks, which is far above the old record of 1976. There are small regional differences. The coastal regions of the Netherlands in particular – from Den Helder to Sluis – are now turning dark brown. In most cases, only a few dozen millimeters have fallen there since the beginning of March.

This line can be extended to Le Havre or perhaps even further south in France. In France, an average of 88 millimeters fell last month, but here too the western side is very dry. Belgium averaged 47 millimeters and the Netherlands only 30 millimeters (compared to an average of 40).

Blocked
Northwestern Europe is currently in the grip of a strong high-pressure area that is blocking the showers. Where will they fall? Spain and Italy are being 'well' showered with precipitation, as has been the case all spring. According to meteorologists, this high-pressure area will remain present all week, and will then slowly move west. A low-pressure area may cause more changeable weather at the end of May. Some significant precipitation will fall, but it will not involve tens of millimeters that can lift the drought situation.

Potato growers are looking at the weather developments with mixed feelings. On the one hand, they fear for the development of their crops. On the other hand, they hope that drought can cause a change in mood on the potato market, which is sinking further and further. Apparently, that swamp is far from drained.

The current situation for the main harvest is not yet precarious. The plants are just emerging and are living off the little moisture that is still there and that is in the tuber. In that vegetative phase, the plants can do with relatively little moisture. Only when the regenerative phase starts, will that change. However, poor tuber setting is taken into account. The opposite of last year.

early potatoes
All over Europe the early potatoes have gone into the ground on time. Not only in the early areas (Palatinate, Tholen, Bordeaux, West Flanders) but also in other places the seed potatoes could go into the ground early. The emergence was good, but now rain is needed to achieve a reasonable yield. A combination of many hours of sunshine, temperature and the early planting date results in the first non-skinned early potatoes being on sale for a week already.

Not only a lack of moisture is playing tricks on the crops. A cold east wind and low RH are also not really good for growth. Last week there was still night frost locally. During the day the mercury may be well over 20 degrees this week, at night it is still quite chilly. Other crops such as onions are also noticing this. Their development is not going very smoothly, as growers notice. Growers in Poland are certainly noticing this. It has also been dry there for quite some time and the temperatures are relatively low. This will remain the case in the coming weeks.

The dry spring followed a dry winter. Moisture reserves in the subsurface are therefore particularly low. This is especially the case in the Netherlands, Belgium and Northern Germany. This is also clearly visible in the shrinking river size. For example, the level of the Rhine has now halved compared to last year.

Record revenue?
The last time it was this dry in the spring was 2022. At that time, an average of 104 millimeters fell in our country. 2018 is still fresh in our memory, but that spring was very wet. 2011 is another relatively recent year that was very dry with only 49 millimeters in the three spring months. This spring has so far been at 36 millimeters. Ultimately, the 2011 harvest year did not turn out negatively. In the Netherlands, an average of over 53 tons per hectare was harvested and that record was not even equaled in 2017. This is mainly due to an above-average wet summer, which ultimately corrected a lot.

Looking at the EU-4, a good yield per hectare is also visible in 2011, but no record. Since 2018, the averages are considerably lower than in the same period before. Perhaps the toppers of the past will not be possible any time soon due to weather extremes and other factors. A larger potato volume comes mainly from the width (more hectares) and not from the height (more kilos per hectare).

Potato crop can recover significantly
It is clear that the drought is noticeable for the crops. Does this immediately imply that the harvest will be disappointing? Certainly not. Experience from the past shows that a potato crop can recover considerably if significant precipitation falls at the right time (end of July/beginning of August). This has happened more often in the last twenty-five years. Traditionally, drought is a good flavour enhancer for the potato market. So far, there has been no sign of this. Processors are not (yet) receptive to it in any case. The mood on the French fry market has become so depressed that the situation in the field has no grip on it for the time being. In addition, the factories are still looking at a large availability of storage potatoes. These may well be urgently needed in three months' time for the switch to the new processing season.