European producers of frozen fries are the big losers on the world market for potato products. Export figures make that clear. While North America and Asia can still present decent results at the beginning of 2025, the volume on this side of the ocean is under great pressure.
This situation comes as no surprise, given the developments on the potato market. Potato processors have been pointing to declining sales of end products for almost half a year. The reasons for this vary: European fries are relatively expensive and the euro exchange rate is unfavourable. Asian countries have also taken market share, there is fear about import duties and buyers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is difficult to answer whether fewer fries are actually being eaten.
18 percent less exports
Unfortunately, export figures from the harmonised trading system are published with a considerable delay. The most recent are those from February. They show that almost 18% less fries were exported by the EU-27 countries. All major destinations show a minus. Over a period of twelve months, the volume is now 7% lower, mainly due to good results in the first half of 2024.
The United Kingdom is by far the largest buyer of European fries. It takes almost twice as much volume as the number two, the Middle East. In February, British volume fell by 16% and that from the Middle East by 35%. Exports to South America fell by 12% and to Asian countries by as much as 37%. In total, a mere 155.000 tonnes of fries were exported, compared to 188.000 tonnes last year.
Price holding up somewhat
Logically, prices are also under pressure. In February, they fell by 6%, good for €76 per tonne. A tonne of European fries cost €1.192 in February. Intuitively, that is – compared to the production costs – still quite high. The truth is complex, since this amount sometimes also includes insurance and freight costs. Exporting and importing countries report different amounts in the trading system. A fall of 6% (and 4% over twelve months) is certainly not as negative as the volume declines that are visible.
Zooming in on the figures for the EU-5 (EU-4 + Poland), the report is unfortunately still a month behind. Up to and including January 2025, the volume is slightly lower (1,3%) than in the same period before, but it is clear that Belgium and the Netherlands are taking a beating. The exported volume in the first month of the year is 12% lower for our country and 7% for Belgium. France and Poland are the big winners, with no less than 75% and 98% growth. The story of France is mainly the significantly increased processing capacity and for Poland it is a combination of the lowest price and better availability of potatoes. Across the board, sales prices are slightly under pressure, with a 3,3% drop in January.
Low cost airline India
The hard conclusion is that it is mainly Europe that is taking a beating at the moment. India even achieved record sales of potato products in February, which were almost half higher than in the same month last year. Saudi Arabia, for example, purchased more than 400% more product in one year, which is directly reflected in the European trade balance. Exports to the United Arab Emirates were no less than 700% higher. Converted, the sales price was on average €1.030 per tonne, which is €162 lower than for fries from Europe.
The US and Canada also did not perform badly. Exporters have clearly stepped on the gas to avoid possible tariffs, which still hang over the market like the sword of Damocles. The US export volume in March of this year was even slightly above last year, and over a twelve-month period the volume is even 4% higher. This positive note is mainly due to Asian countries such as Japan, Taiwan and Malaysia that ordered more American fries. Canada kept its exports stable in March, with only a minimal contraction. The volume exported to the US did decrease by 4%. North American prices are also slightly under pressure.
Major powers hit hard
European French fry producers, and especially those in Belgium and the Netherlands, must hope for a small miracle to pull their world trade out of the doldrums. The major powers are currently being hit hard. Insiders report that the situation in February and March was not much better than in January, for which data is known. The Asian competition will not simply disappear if they maintain their price advantage. For that to happen, European prices still have to fall significantly. The downward path has indeed been set, but is that enough?
Within Europe and towards the US, a very good volume of fries is still being sold. The challenge lies in the Middle East and Asia, where the Dutch and Belgians are having to let go. This results in a (temporary) flattening of the growth of the European fries market, as has been revealed since the corona pandemic. The chance that this situation will also dominate the market in the coming season (or two) is high. This will then have an irrevocable effect on the free potato prices and contract prices, as is already visible.