A faltering sales of French fries as an argument for the sharp drop in prices for French fries potatoes often comes across as an easy score for growers. After all, getting a grip on the sales of French fries is often not possible, which means it comes down to trusting that this is really the case. But is the argument correct or not?
Let's go back in time. The 2024 growing year was dominated in the preparations by a shortage of seed potatoes of the common French fries varieties. All sorts of attempts have been made to meet the demand for seed potatoes of French fries varieties, as best as they can, by aligning the available seed potatoes as much as possible as seed potatoes. However, this could not prevent the need to use non-common French fries varieties in order to be able to plant the area desired by processors. The risks that this would entail were accepted at that time. Quantity seemed to win over quality. Processors seemed to operate in a world that knew no limits to the sale of French fries, which allowed for many resources to simply allow the area to grow.
High expectations
A year later, it appears that little remains of the high expectations and the sale of fries has become a difficult story for processors. Last week it was already written on this site that processors have been busy dumping their stock of inferior quality fries, not as chips but as cattle feed. The unusual chip varieties and harvests from certain soil types no longer seemed to fit the rapidly changing sales, which meant that processors had to focus on quality and no longer on quantity.
Macabre developments
But the foundation for the 2025 harvest had already been laid. Last winter, processors appeared to have accommodated their contracts in no time, not least because of the high contract prices that growers would receive. The environment in which French fries potatoes were traded seemed to have no idea until mid-February that the price development could also come to a standstill, let alone that the price would drop. We now know that after mid-February, the price of French fries potatoes only dropped to levels below €10 with virtually no buying interest. This abnormal development has something macabre about it, now that even processors seem to have overdone it. The cause must be found in the sales of French fries, were the signals.
The most recent figures on the sales of French fries from processors in the EU-5, up to and including February 2025, show that there is indeed a decline in French fry sales. In particular, sales within Europe have fallen sharply, from over 360.000 tonnes in July 2024 to 260.000 tonnes in February 2025, a decrease of over 27%. However, sales of frozen end products to destinations outside Europe have increased from 119.000 tonnes in July 2024 to 134.000 tonnes in February 2025, an increase of 13%. If we lump all sales together, there is a decline of 18% in the export of French fries (approximately -85.000 tonnes).
Flexible is the new gold
Reclaiming ground seems to be the motto for 2025. The removal of the lower quality of fries (making room) has already given a start. Steering towards a lower volume of fries potatoes in the books is an art that the Belgians have understood better for years than their Dutch equivalents in particular. Where previously being heavily contracted was a pleasure, that medal now also seems to have another side. Those who can operate flexibly on the purchasing side seem to have gold in their hands and can make it difficult for their competitors. Reclaiming sales can ultimately only be achieved by delivering quality for less money. The fact that growers will not escape this is already clear from the current price developments of fries potatoes.
Summarized: