That potato growers in the EU-4 countries were going to plant more potatoes this year, friend and foe have long agreed on that. No crop can compete with the potential yield of the potato. Nevertheless, growth may be lower than was estimated at the beginning of this year. A sharply reduced demand for potatoes clearly has an impact.
Germany and France have now presented official figures for potatoes, although they are not yet entirely complete. For the Netherlands and Belgium, we have to make do with good estimates. What makes it difficult is that the situation in March is very different from that in May. At the start of the planting season, considerable growth was still expected in the EU-4, but when processors started to reduce their contract volumes, this did have an impact on the areas. The final effect of this is still unclear.
Netherlands: Possibly small growth
No area forecast has been made for the Netherlands yet. Last year, the total potato area decreased slightly. The CBS comes to 154.710 hectares, which is 3.000 hectares less than the year before or 1,9% shrinkage. Mainly due to fewer consumption potatoes (5.000 hectares or 6,5%). This year everything was planted quickly and the availability of land is also relatively good. Onions are the biggest competitor, but there is a better balance in both crops. The increasing availability of former grasslands due to livestock farmers who are retiring is also causing the area to grow.
DCA Market Intelligence estimates the total area last year at 156.510 hectares and for this year at 158.900 hectares. That is 2.390 hectares more, good for 1,5% growth. This is half a percent less than the 159.630 hectares of the five-year average.
Belgium: Uncertainty in growth rate
For Belgium, we have to rely on the figures that Viaverda and Fiwap published at the beginning of this spring, based on a survey that was held among more than 200 growers. A total consumption area of 106.000 hectares emerged from this, which is good for 6% growth. This means the largest area ever in our southern neighbours. The growth of the Belgian potato area is estimated by DCA Market Intelligence at 2.5%.
This survey was conducted before processors and traders started cutting their contract volumes. That the 6% is not achieved is therefore very large. However, there is a plus, which means it continues to head for a record.
Germany: The biggest grower
Figures from the statistics service Destatis show an area figure of 296.000 hectares of potatoes (consumption, starch and seed potatoes). That is 13.500 hectares or 4,8% more than was planted last year. This is the largest area in twenty-five years. North Rhine-Westphalia is growing strongly in area, with 9% growth to 145.800 hectares. This means that almost half! of all German potatoes are growing in the neighboring state. Lower Saxony is in second place with 46.200 hectares, which is 3,1% growth. Bavaria is shrinking again, by only 1,4%, to 35.600 hectares. In percentage terms, Saxony-Anhalt is at the top. There, the area is growing by 15,4% to 15.700 hectares.
Destatis has a reputation for being a real number cruncher. Substantial corrections were made afterwards in 2023 and 2024, because the initial estimate was incorrect. In both springs it was wet and planting was very late. This year all the potatoes are in the ground quickly. It is therefore plausible that the figure of a tight 5% is quite close to the truth. Unfortunately, the statistics service has not yet made a division between the potato segments. The largest growth by far is probably in French fries potatoes, which have made enormous progress in North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony.
France: Growth takes significant step back
In mid-April, it seemed that France would even have to deal with a reduction in potato cultivation this year. A month later, the Ministry of Agriculture Agreste nevertheless came up with new figures, which show that 1,4% more consumption potatoes have been planted compared to 2024. This brings the area to 172.000 hectares if we follow the area figures of the ministry. It is clear that French growers have planted less than previously thought, which is mainly the result of lower contract volumes with potato processors and traders.
DCA Market Intelligence is calculating with slightly higher figures. Last week, the area of consumption potatoes reached 178.000 hectares. If you calculate that with 1,4% growth, you arrive at around 180.500 hectares. The total, including starch and seed potatoes, is put at 233.900 hectares by DCA MI for this year. A fairly substantial growth of 5,3%. The area of starch potatoes is probably not growing at all in the country. Seed potatoes are growing somewhat.
Conclusion: New record, but also in yield?
If you add up all the areas, you get a total of 4 hectares in the EU-795.500, which is a record. It is almost 26.000 hectares or 3,4% more than was planted last year. If there is a correction in that figure, it will most likely be downwards. In itself, that growth is not strange, given the extra capacity that has been built in the EU-4.
With a five-year average yield of 42 tonnes per hectare (for all varieties), the total yield for this area amounts to 33,41 million tonnes. Last year, 32,55 million tonnes were harvested. If the drought continues, this could have an impact on the final yields. This is particularly the case for the early and mid-early varieties. It will not have much impact on the main harvest, although a low number of stems and tubers could mean fewer kilos. A record area does not necessarily mean a record harvest.