American potato processors are making a major correction in the potato area in the United States this year. This brings it to the lowest level in 73 years. New figures from the sector confirm the reduction. The companies are anticipating a reduced demand for potatoes and end products. This means that the American scenario could well have a predictive value for the European market.
Before planting had to start, it was assumed that there would be a 3% to 4% reduction in area in the United States this year. New estimates from the sector itself, now that planting is almost complete, indeed come to this percentage. In the two large potato states Idaho and Washington in particular, contract volumes have been cut back considerably.
Double reduction
The latest area estimate for 2025 is 362.600 hectares of potatoes (consumption and seed) in the United States. This represents a decrease of 3,7% compared to the 376.465 hectares that were grown last year according to the USDA. The area was also down then, by 3,1%. Significant reductions in Idaho and Washington contribute significantly to this reduction.
Idaho and Washington together account for half of the total potato cultivation in the country. This is also where the potato processors are clustered. It is not surprising that relatively large reductions are being made in contract volumes there. At 125.500 hectares, the area in Idaho is 1,5% lower than last year. That does not sound like much, but it is still more than 2.000 hectares less than in 2024. In Washington, the area decreases by 6.000 hectares, to 58.700 hectares. A reduction of 9,5% compared to last year. In percentage terms, Oregon is the biggest faller, with 11,5% fewer potatoes (-2.000 hectares).
Ideal growing season
In both potato states, the growing season has started well and the crops are looking good. The weather has been almost ideal so far. In Idaho, the reduction in area is smaller because growers decided to plant potatoes without a contract. The seed potatoes for this were usually already present on the farms. Producers of French fries as well as granules and flakes have cut volumes this year.
The growing season in North Dakota, the number three in potatoes with 29.000 hectares, has started more erratically. Temperatures yo-yoed between 4 and 35 degrees over a period of ten days. There was also significant precipitation, which is a gift for the growers. Planting is not yet finished in the prairie state in early June. One processor has reduced its contract volumes slightly, while the table potato area is actually increasing. As a result, the total area increases only very slightly.
Smallest area since 1952
If the area shrinks by 3,7%, we will be talking about the smallest American potato area since 1952. If an average harvest is achieved, the total potato volume will be only 2% lower than last year. The starting position of the growing season has been exceptionally good in most states, which gives the impression that 2025 could yield a good harvest. The USDA will publish its first forecast for this year's area at the end of June.
Almost all French fry producers have cut their potato contracts. There are factories that continue to operate with the old harvest until September. Also, large volumes of potatoes are being dumped as cattle feed, especially in Idaho and Washington. feedlots. There is no demand for free potatoes at all, just like in Europe. In the meantime, the early potatoes are doing well, so the new harvest is expected to be earlier and larger in volume.
More French fries export
In the first quarter of this year, the export level of fries from the US and Canada together was 3,4% higher than in the same quarter last year, according to international trade figures. In the same period, the EU exported 8,8% less. China and India are the two countries that have a strong finger in the pie. The former doubled its export volume in the first quarter of this year, while India's increased by almost a third.
US stock figures from May 1st confirm the good export level. The volume decrease during April was the third largest in more than ten years. Almost 16.000 tons of fries were withdrawn from the cold stores. The total stock at the beginning of May was 3% smaller than last year.
Predictive gift
American potato processors have been dealing with disappointing French fry exports for some time now. This was anticipated last year (with less acreage) and again this year. Levies are still hanging over the sector like a dark cloud, but it is mainly the increased competition that is playing tricks on them. This situation shows many similarities with the scenario that is now unfolding in Europe. The North American movement can therefore have a predictive value for how European processors will act if the situation here does not improve significantly.