In the future, residents of the United States may have to eat one less French fry or pay more for it. Imports of frozen French fries from Europe and Canada are declining, according to customs data. This is partly the result of the import duties imposed by President Trump earlier this year.
After his second inauguration as president on January 20, Trump immediately started imposing import duties, or threatened to do so. These threats are still hanging in the air. For example, the European Union has been granted a reprieve from additional duties until July 9, on top of the standard tariffs. Products such as cars, electronics and steel are particularly in the firing line. However, French fries are also not spared.
Two factors
Potato processors and French fry exporters have been keeping a close eye on Trump's whims for a long time and what it can do to their exports. In recent years, European countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands and France in particular have been able to significantly increase their export volumes to the country. The reason for this is twofold: the potato yields in the country were not always good and Europe is interesting for the Americans in terms of price.
Exports were already falling at the end of last year, even before the new president was installed, which was largely due to a good domestic potato harvest in the US. Early this year, the exported volume recovered somewhat, but in April the volume was almost 10% lower than last year. The US imported 116.000 tonnes, compared to more than 128.000 tonnes a year ago. Over a period of twelve months, the imported volume is still 3% higher.
Belgium and Canada lose
Belgium and Germany both had to make concessions in April. The former country lost 16% of its volume. Good for 2.700 tons less product. After Canada, it is the largest supplier of fries to the Americans. The supply from Germany halved, but this was 'only' 685 tons. Canada saw 10% fewer fries disappear across the border. Good for almost 11.000 tons less product. This means that the volume drops well below 100.000 tons, just as happened in the short month of February.
The Netherlands is on the other side of the coin in April. Exports to America increased by 10% to 3.189 tonnes. That is 288 tonnes more than a year ago. Dutch companies should not be too proud of this. Over a period of twelve months, the export volume is still 13% lower than the same period before, making it one of the big losers. Belgium still recorded an increase of 8,3% in that period. For Canada, that is 2,4%.
A notable newcomer to the list is India, which has established itself on the French fry export scene together with China. Over twelve months, the volume to the US has increased by 380%. In absolute tonnes, this is only 2.945 tonnes. In April, the volume increased by more than 400%, to 566 tonnes.
Falling prices
The knife was also cut in the average prices paid for fries. The Netherlands supplied the cheapest fries in April ($1.419 per ton), which could also explain why the country scores positively in the export list. Belgium is considerably higher with $1.527. Canada is almost as expensive as our country with $1.420 per ton for frozen fries. Egypt is emerging as the price fighter, while India charges a very high price, as does France.
In terms of the value of the product received, Canada is far ahead with $133,88 million, but in April it recorded a 13,5% loss in total value. Over a whole year, the country is still almost 6% in the black. The US bought no less than $1,8 billion worth of fries from its northern neighbor. With $270 million, Belgium is in second place. Imports from the country fell by 18% in April, but over a whole year it is 10% in the black. The Netherlands comes in third with more than $53 million.
Expensive fries
If Trump does indeed impose additional levies in early July, which could also affect products such as French fries, this will have an irreversible effect on the imported volume. In addition, the US itself has high stocks of potatoes and potato products, which reduces the need. And don't forget the stronger euro, which makes importing European fries considerably more expensive. Nevertheless, the country cannot fully support itself when it comes to the enormous hunger for fries. Ultimately, it is the American consumer who pays the price of this tariff war.
An analysis by financial website TheStreet shows that the price of a portion of fries at McDonald's in the US rose by 134% between 2019 and 2024. The main cause for this was the price of frying oil. That oil could also become more expensive in the future. The US also imports large quantities of rapeseed oil from Canada.