After years of rising seed potato prices and declining area, the latest figures now point to a significant expansion of the seed potato area for the 2025/26 season. What does this mean for seed potato pricing?
According to the most recent figures, the seed potato area has increased in almost all major cultivation countries in Western Europe. The Netherlands is recording a clear area expansion, while the seed potato area is also growing in Germany, Belgium and France. This seems to be turning the tide after years in which seed potato trading houses had difficulty in acquiring the desired area.
An important cause for the decline was the lagging of the seed potato price compared to the price of French fries potatoes. In recent years, contract prices for French fries potatoes rose sharply, partly due to strong demand for French fries, and growers with free potatoes achieved high cultivation balances. This stimulated seed potato growers to grow less seed potatoes and (more) French fries potatoes.
In addition, structural challenges in the seed potato sector played a role, such as increasing cultivation and labor costs, higher disease pressure and stricter requirements for starting material. The relatively moderate kilo yields in the past two seasons also played a role.
From scarcity to possible surplus
This combination of factors led to a tight seed potato supply and rising prices. That picture seems to be changing for the new season. The strongly increased seed potato area, combined with a favourable growing season so far – with a good stand, acceptable disease pressure and a good setting – points to a potentially above-average harvest.
However, at this very moment there is fierce competition on the global French fry market, which is shifting the production of French fries to other parts of the world. As a result, there is less demand for French fries from European processors and as a result the potato price is under pressure, which is why processors are pushing for cost reductions in the chain. In this, seed potatoes are explicitly in the picture: processors emphasize that the cost price for consumer growers must be reduced, with lower seed potato prices as a direct lever.
Strategic behavior of consumer growers
A second important point is the structural change in behaviour among consumer growers. The scarcity of seed potatoes in the spring of 2024 with shortages of varieties specific to French fry cultivation has led to an explosive growth in the area of own propagation (ATR and farm seed potatoes). This trend was already visible last spring, but is expected to have an even stronger effect in the coming year and could further reduce the demand for seed potatoes.
Outlook
The seed potato market in Europe is heading for a challenging season. On the one hand, with a significantly expanded area with good crop development, and on the other hand, a consumption market that is in the grip of cost reduction and own propagation. This could put pressure on the price of seed potatoes, which means that the levels of recent years for the 2025 harvest may not be achievable. For trading houses, seed potato growers and consumption growers, it is important to closely monitor this market movement and make strategic choices in good time for the 2026 season.