It's no longer news, but the 2024/25 season will be one with the most bizarre ending of a large number of previous years. You can't really count the corona years, then it was easy to explain why the market price imploded.
At the time of the corona outbreak, the highest level was the April 2020 listing of €20,20 and the average that season was around €17,50. When the corona specter appeared, the market quickly dropped back to €2, a drop of say €15. This season the drop is even more severe. For example, for the April 2025 listing, €40,10 was listed at its peak. After a drop towards the turn of the year (2024/25), €30 was the price for a long time.
Gliding towards expiration
From mid-February 2025, the decline started with the final settlement for the June 2025 listing at €9,40.
Afterwards, the poisoned chalice was not yet empty and the physical market for French fries potatoes dropped back to prices below the €5 level, with currently one major buyer: the 'cow beak'. Even the normally popular Agria variety, with which multiple market segments can be served, is in the corner where the blows fall in terms of pricing, also when it comes to product from mechanical cooling!
Worrying developments
The fact that a potato market is winding down in this way, especially in these years of unprecedented growth within the EU-4 countries of processing sales, without an apparent reason such as corona, is more than worrying. Everything is focused on more sales of the end product, as is evident from the significant increase in area in the EU-4 countries for the 2025 harvest year. However, the world currently looks completely different with, as previously indicated, current market prices of around €5. In addition, there is absolutely no interest in the market for the 2025/26 season.
This has already resulted in a futures market for the April 2026 contract of €12. Apparently, enough has been contracted at historically high contract prices. In the unprecedented optimism, growers in Europe have also planted a part of their potatoes without any form of sales, for which there will be virtually no market as things stand now.
Glimmer of hope
For the time being, the factories are processing the last expensive contract potatoes and very cheap other free potatoes. Signals that a number of processors are still working with the cheaply obtained raw material is bad news for the start and transition to the new season. Optimists indicate that with the necessary cheaperness of the product produced for the world market, the market will regain its balance. An idea that can certainly turn out that way, but for the moment the balance is completely gone and that will not be resolved in a few months.