The Aviko ATC (Potato Growers Committee) presented excellent pool prices at the beginning of July. However, there was no jubilant mood. Unfortunately, the current market's dark clouds also cast a shadow over the results. The results also make one thing clear: without a futures market, there are no good pool prices.
You have beautiful pool prices were able to achieve last season, especially in pre-sales. Is the futures market to blame for that?
"Being able to sell on the futures market, when the market was around €40 last summer, certainly helped. But of course, there's more to it. The yields of the growers in the pool were somewhat disappointing. As a result, we had less to sell at the end of the season. That had a positive effect on the price, because we ran out early."
The futures market is currently at a quarter of that price level. What does this mean for the pool next season?
"I was also asked that question during the pool meeting, of course. I countered by asking: 'Would you be satisfied with half the current pool price next year?' It was meant jokingly, but there's a serious undertone. The current situation is negative, but we don't yet know anything about the market for 2026. Looking at the figures, we're heading for an excellent harvest in Europe, partly due to the acreage expansions. The fact is: things always turn out differently than you think. A lot can still happen."
Especially during extreme weather, we've always relied on the futures market as an indicator. What's the point now that this instrument is failing?
During the meeting, I mentioned that we desperately need the futures market. Buyers are hard to find. The chip factories have contracted more and more in recent years and currently still have a lot of chips to sell. They see the futures market as an additional risk. With 100% coverage, they feel less compelled to trade and consider it speculative. As a grower, you want to hedge your risks.
Do you have a plan B when the futures market no longer exists?
"At the moment, that is not the case. How we are going to do that in a few years, I don't know now. That is also why we decided last year emergency bell have sounded. Unfortunately, we must conclude that alarm bells haven't yet gone off for many growers and processors. We'd like to discuss this further.
Isn't that precisely something for lobbyists?
You can try to push, but experience shows that this is more likely to be counterproductive. All parties must first recognize the importance of this. LTO, NAV, VTA, and the processors were all present during the PotatoNL negotiations. That already took a lot of time and effort. Something like this takes time; it's not easy.
Do you think the current market situation is something we will have to deal with for a longer period of time?
Aviko remains positive about the structural growth of the French fry sector. It's increasing by 3% to 4% year on year. Cost prices are affecting us and other European countries. We're slightly more competitively priced compared to North America, but considerably more expensive than China and especially India. The price of Indian fries is a third lower, making them very competitive. Some factories are affected more than others, depending on the share of overseas exports. These fries are being exported closer to home, which in turn affects the European market.
Do you think this could also have an impact on contract prices next year?
When the market falls, contract prices also correct. In recent years, the potato acreage has expanded. This was also seen with onions, but eventually a correction will occur here as well. The cultivation plan continues to search and shift crops and acreage. High grain prices could have a major impact on this across Europe. Currently, grain prices unfortunately don't encourage this, but the global stage remains volatile. This situation can change quickly. Moreover, the long-term scenario for French fry sales remains undiminishedly positive.