The bad news is reflected in the potato price

A clear price decline has been underway since February 2025, and this trend appears irreversible for the time being. The transition to the new season is therefore strongly influenced by the negative close of the previous one. Several factors are currently weighing heavily on the market:

• A significant expansion of the potato area in Europe.
• Predominantly favourable growing conditions in most growing regions.
• Disappointing sales of both potatoes (export) and processed products such as fries.
• Building up significant stocks of both fresh potatoes and frozen products.
• A rapid increase in processing capacity.
• Large-scale contracting by processors.

Price level reflects uncertainties, but also offers perspective
Although the short-term market situation appears unfavorable, this can also be interpreted differently. Current pricing—with a quote of around €10 for early potatoes (Viaverda) and for April 2026 (futures)—reflects the negative news and current market uncertainties. In fact, this low price level could actually create new opportunities.

Historically, a season that starts at a low price point often leads to:

• Reopening of export markets that dropped out due to higher price levels.
• More efficient use of processing capacity.
• Processing higher quality potatoes, leading to higher yields per tonne of end product.

While a quick return to €30 per 100 kilos is unlikely, the current price level could lay the foundation for a gradual recovery later in the season. As one experienced trader puts it: "We could go down €10, but we could also go up €30."

Harvest and storage remain determining factors
It's important to realize that the growing season isn't over yet. The potatoes still have about eight weeks to grow, be harvested, and ultimately stored. Current prices assume this process will proceed smoothly; an assumption that, given the natural risks inherent in agriculture, is far from certain. As the saying goes: the prize is only awarded at the finish line.