Potato cultivation in Europe is exploding this season, with an increase of 77.000 hectares for all varieties. The crop is also growing significantly in the EU-4 countries. Reality has caught up with the ambitions of the potato world, which is not exactly clamoring for more produce. Uncertainty is increasing significantly because production and sales are not aligned. A significant overproduction is looming.
All EU member states have now submitted area figures for the CAP. These show that the total potato area in the EU for this year is provisionally estimated at 1,47 million hectares. This represents an increase of no less than 77.000 hectares, or 5,5%, compared to the 1,39 million hectares cultivated last year.
Considerably more French potatoes
According to Eurostat data, France is the fastest-growing country, with a whopping 20.000 hectares added! This was already evident from data published in mid-July by the industry association CNIPT and the growers' organization UNPT. They estimate 197.000 hectares of ware potatoes, significantly more than the 172.000 hectares estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (Agreste) and the 178.000 hectares we have been assuming so far.
An increase of 18.000 hectares (10%) is less than the 22.000 hectares added in 2024, but still unprecedented. French potato organizations rely on official area data and member surveys. They conclude that many new growers have started or expanded their potato production. In the Hauts-de-France region, over 11.000 more hectares are being cultivated, and in Picardy, 6.860 hectares.
EU-4 by 600.000 hectares
These new data significantly change the equation for ware potatoes. In the EU-4, the area now exceeds 600.000 hectares (+7,5%), an absolute record. This represents an additional 41.680 hectares of ware potatoes compared to 2024. This increase has never been so large. The total area (including seed potatoes and starch) now totals 812.100 hectares, representing a 6,5% increase.
If all figures are confirmed, this year's acreage growth will be significantly higher than the 5% previously expected. It's striking that a significant portion of this expansion is being grown without contracts, or at least without a fixed price. Several large processors and traders have actually lowered their contract volumes for the 2025 harvest. The free cultivation of potatoes means that significant price fluctuations are possible in adverse market conditions.
25,2 million tons
The new acreage figures also mean a potentially larger harvest. With more than 600.000 hectares, you're talking about a potential 25,2 million tons of potatoes, calculated using the five-year average yield per hectare. That's 80.000 tons more than was harvested in 2024. With a bumper harvest, the volume could even exceed 30 million tons. A volume that's almost impossible to comprehend, and thankfully, not very realistic.
A combination of factors, but especially the lack of rainfall, means that peak yields are unlikely to be achieved in the EU-4. A dramatically low yield, such as in 2018, is the other extreme, but the final 5% to 10% of yields could be lost if crops fail early and the drought persists. Even then, the balance between supply and demand remains very precarious.
French fries exports lagging behind
This peak production couldn't have come at a worse time for the French fry industry, which is the main driver of this growth. It's the European giants who are now losing ground on the French fry market, and expectations for the 2025/26 season are far from positive. At the beginning of this year, European exports were 5% behind the previous season. In March, the last month for which figures are available, the picture is mixed. The Netherlands exported 3,6% more production compared to a year ago. France even saw a 30% increase. Belgium performed worse, with a -6,6% drop. Germany remained stable.
Global French fry sales grew by over 4% in March. Slight growth is also visible over the twelve-month period. This is not the case for Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany, which are down 1%, 5%, and 7,5% respectively. France, however, still shows significant growth of 45%, primarily due to increased processing capacity.
Win for China and India
China and India are the main winners, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. In one year, India's sales grew by 35%, and China's by as much as 75%. Egypt achieved 45% growth and gained more market share. These countries are winning more customers based on cost. The difference compared to Europe and North America is so significant that grabbing a piece of the pie seems effortless, especially when the product quality is also excellent. These countries have also invested heavily in processing and exports, often by European and North American companies.
Until early 2022, the price of Dutch fries was below €1.000 per tonne. By July of last year, it had climbed above €1.400, after which a cautious decline began. March 2025 marked a break in the trend, with prices rising sharply again. After a dip in January and February, to €1.312, sales rose again to €1.364. Belgium managed to remain below the €1.000 mark for a little longer, peaking at €1.280 in October 2023. The price is now back below €1.200 per tonne.
French fries cost price
At €1.200 per tonne for frozen fries and a contract price of €270 per tonne, the potato price represents 40% of the price of fries. This makes it a decisive factor for processors. The prices of frying oil, packaging materials, and energy are stable after the extreme peaks in 2022. Labor costs continue to rise. The harsh reality is that a lower potato (contract) price is the shortest way to reduce costs for processors.
That's not in the cards for 2025/26. At €27,08 (Fontane delivery April) and €29,41 (Innovator delivery April), the average contract price has never been so high. By the end of June, it will have risen to over €30. Processors have benefited very little from the free market. They pre-committed large volumes at a fixed price and even had to slow down contracting this spring. A mismatch in contracts and sales can lead to unusual things happening.
Expectation
It's important to be cautious about making future predictions while potatoes aren't even on the shelves yet. Unfortunately, the outlook for the potato market is very unfavorable. Potato product sales aren't bad, sometimes showing slight increases, but Europe is rapidly losing ground in distant export destinations based on cost prices. Market share is easily lost and difficult to regain. Processors have committed to maintaining high cost prices for the next twelve months. Insiders indicate that French fry sales for the coming season will be difficult.
Fries that are produced or will be produced must be sold at a lower price, sometimes even at a loss. Product destined for overseas export is sold in Europe, which hinders sales here. This disrupts the market. After financially booming years for the factories, the annual accounts will look different starting in 2025.
Consequences for contracting
Looking ahead, this also has irreversible consequences for contract prices and acreage in 2026. Since the coronavirus pandemic, the industry's focus has been solely on the upside, and there has been a great hunger for potatoes. Now, a clear trend reversal is occurring, and this growth strategy is being halted. Companies remain positive about the long term and are leveraging the annually increasing consumption of French fries to achieve this, but this is being met to an increasingly smaller extent by the EU-4, as evidenced by the investment plans of European processors elsewhere in the world. In the current context, growers must anticipate a scenario in which potato cultivation could change significantly in the coming years.