French fries exports increased by 6 billion euros in 5,5 years

On the first day of Potato Europe in Lelystad, today (Wednesday, September 3rd), Rabobank will present its World Potato Map to representatives from organizations including Vavi, NAO, and BO Akkerbouw. ​​This is the second time the bank has published a map showing all potato trade flows worldwide. Over the past six years, the sector has experienced explosive growth, driven primarily by the international trade in French fries and other frozen potato products.

High cost
The export value rose from $7,7 billion to $13,2 billion (equivalent to €11,35 billion). The exported volume grew from 8,1 to 9,2 million tons during that period, an increase of 1,1 million tons, or 13,5%. Not only did higher demand and higher prices contribute to this increase, but there were also some cost changes, explains Cindy van Rijswick, a fruit and vegetable strategist at RaboResearch. "The costs of growing and processing potatoes have risen significantly worldwide. Demand for potato products was mainly driven by increased imports from the US, the UK, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Germany, and Spain."

European and North American processors no longer dominate the global stage. China and India have transitioned from net importers to net exporters of potato products. China achieved a compound annual growth rate of 79% between 2019 and 2024, India reached 45%, and Egypt 16%. RaboResearch believes these countries will continue to expand their processing capacity and export volumes, primarily due to rising demand for fries in the Middle East and Asia.

The two countries also lead the world in potato production. Global potato production is estimated at 372 million tons, with China accounting for almost a quarter and India for 16%. The EU follows with 12% of global production. In the EU and the US, however, potato production is under significant pressure, particularly in terms of yields per hectare.

Geopolitics
It's Europe, in particular, that's facing a major challenge. The European potato harvest is large this year, resulting in low potato prices. Furthermore, the geopolitical playing field has shifted significantly. Van Rijswick: "The situation this season is quite different from the period highlighted on the World Potato Map. Import tariffs and unfavorable exchange rates have made it very difficult to export potato products to the US market, which is a major buyer."

According to the strategist, rising costs have affected everyone in the supply chain, from growers to processors and even consumers. The price of frozen fries has been erratic. It has skyrocketed since January 2022. Prices have fallen significantly again, particularly in China and India, through the beginning of this year. In Belgium and the Netherlands, prices have fallen somewhat more slowly. Only in the US has the price remained unprecedentedly high.

Seed potatoes stable
The Netherlands continues to account for approximately half of all seed potato exports worldwide. The total volume amounted to 1,83 million tons, compared to 1,81 million tons in 2019. RaboResearch believes that production here will come under increasing pressure due to climate change and other regulations, which will undermine the country's competitive position.

The World Potato Map 2019-2024 is here download.