Dutch fries exports outside the EU-27 are declining, but compared to Belgium, the damage has been minimal so far. Germany is seeing sales decline at the same rate as Belgium, while France is showing a substantial gain.
Dutch fries sales outside the EU-27 fell by almost 6% to 542.759 tons in the first seven months of this year, according to figures from the Eurostat statistics agency. Belgium faces greater challenges. That country exported 746.208 tons to third countries, down around 17% compared to the same period last year. A bright spot, however, is that the decline has been slowing since May; in the period from January to May, the decline was still 21,4%.
Based on Eurostat figures, Belgium and the Netherlands share a common denominator: the lower sales are largely due to declining sales in the United Kingdom. According to Eurostat, Belgium will export almost 16% less to the United Kingdom this year than in 2024. In the Netherlands, this decline is over 13%.
Belgium is also experiencing a sharp decline in sales to Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Australia, Chile, and the United Arab Emirates this year. Exports to Saudi Arabia are plummeting by around 40%. Exports to Brazil are struggling just as much, falling by 32%.
The Netherlands is selling more in Brazil than last year (+34%). However, Belgium remains a larger supplier there, with over 45.000 tons, compared to the Netherlands with 35.000 tons in seven months. Dutch exports to Saudi Arabia also started this year with a 6% increase in the first half, but sales fell sharply in July.
More competition from China and India
In some markets, the Netherlands and Belgium are experiencing stiffer competition from India and China. India, for example, has managed to increase its sales to the United Arab Emirates fivefold this year to 15.000 tons. China has seen an even bigger jump to 8.700 tons in the first seven months.
In terms of volume, the Netherlands and Belgium are most affected by China's exports to the Philippines, Thailand, and Japan. India is also making waves, particularly in the Philippines, and further afield in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. The fact that this competition has only had a limited impact on Dutch exports outside the EU this year is partly due to increased Dutch sales to Brazil, the US, Colombia, and Saudi Arabia. Belgium is selling more fries this year to South Africa, Mexico, Israel, and Honduras.
Despite import duties and adverse exchange rate effects, Dutch exports to the US have increased by 20%. And after an initial decline, Belgium has managed to limit the effect on exports to the US to a 3,5% drop after seven months. This means that the Netherlands and Belgium are doing well in the US despite import duties and exchange rate effects.
In the Netherlands, the decline in French fry sales is primarily due to exports within the European Union. In the first half of this year, sales within the EU fell by 11% to 363.000 tons. Germany, Italy, Spain, and France, in particular, are buying fewer French fries in the Netherlands.
Exports to Germany fell by 17% to 81.500 tons in the first half of this year. Exports to Italy decreased by more than 40% to less than 18.000 tons. Increased sales to Poland (+16%) and a doubling of exports to Bulgaria and Serbia cannot sufficiently offset this.
Depends on United Kingdom
All in all, Dutch exporters are quite able to offset their sales losses to certain destinations outside the EU with increased sales in other countries. The significant reliance on sales to the United Kingdom is particularly striking, despite India and China having virtually no presence in that market.
Within the EU, it's more difficult to find alternative markets. Within the European Union, the Netherlands is heavily dependent on exports to Germany, Belgium, and France. This is a difficult situation given the enormous growth of potato cultivation and processing in these competing countries.