What the 2017 potato season can teach us this year

The potato world has evolved significantly in eight years. For example, the area of ​​table potatoes in the EU-4 has increased by a quarter. This is entirely due to demand from the industries, which process much larger volumes and receive significantly higher prices for fries. This also applies to growers, where contract prices have doubled.

Need a story?
If the 2017/18 season taught us anything, it's that you need a "story" to create a positive atmosphere. This value was true then, and it remains the same today. Ultimately, a late and wet spring, followed by a persistent drought, ensured that the market opened up in the final stages. So, it remains to be seen what spring 2026 will bring. Exports must remain stable, and that's precisely where things are currently stalling. This competitive position, particularly compared to India and China, is also unlikely to change in this timeframe.

Before a soaking wet Potato Europe in 2017, a national potato quotation was officially announced: PotatoNL. On November 14th, the first price, €4 per 100 kilograms for category 1, was announced. This price level wasn't surpassed again until the end of March 2018, with a low of €3,50 in December and February. It took until the end of July for the price to show significant movement, with a closing price for the 2017 harvest of €14,50. This was due to a smaller acreage, a wet spring with poor soil structure, followed by persistent drought.

Predictive gift
The performance of the potato futures market is remarkable when comparing the two years. Although the number of positions has been reduced by almost 100%, the closing price of the April contract is virtually unchanged over the same period so far in both years. This summer, the 2026 contract was still higher, but at the end of July, it fell below the 2017 level. The two lines have since intertwined, and the current contract is performing slightly better. Eight years ago, the low was reached in week 50, with a closing price of €4,20 per 100 kilos. It never rose above €6,20 that year. Only in the following summer months did the price shoot up when it became clear that the new harvest had suffered significant damage.

Despite the decimated number of open positions, there's a good chance the 2017 chart is predictive of the current season. However, the relevance of this instrument is now significantly reduced. This is especially problematic for pools, which are missing a crucial hedging opportunity.

French fries export
It's not just a larger acreage and higher yields that are depressing market sentiment. The real problem is the decline in French fry sales. In the first half of the year, Dutch exports to countries outside the EU were down 6%, according to export figures. The pain is greater in Belgium, where 17% less product was exported outside Europe over the same period. Compared to 2017, French fry exports were still well above that level. However, in Belgium, the trend is declining. While nearly 50.000 tons more were exported in March and April than eight years ago, in June the difference was barely 12.000 tons.

Dutch exports present a very different picture. While Belgium still manages to achieve volume growth of a quarter to over 30%, the situation is different for our country. Compared to 2017, French fry exports are lagging behind in five out of six months, varying from -8% to -19%. Only in April of this year were exports 11.000 tons higher. This situation is somewhat explainable. Belgian potato companies, including Aviko in Poperinge, have added significant processing capacity in recent years. Potato cultivation also grew in size. This occurred much less so in the Netherlands.

French exports doubled
For the real growth figures, you have to look at France. In terms of exports, 2025 performed significantly better in the first half of the year than 2017. Exports were more than double, although a decline was noticeable in June. Proportionally, less was also exported in April, but the volume was still very good.

Looking at the French fry export figures without context makes it difficult to understand the current market malaise. However, considering how the sales market has evolved and processing has changed over the past eight years, it becomes easier to understand. Belgian processing has increased by a remarkable 1,28 million tons since 2017, representing a 27,5% growth rate. In the Netherlands, exports fell by 4,3% over the same period (-172.400 tons). This is remarkable, to say the least, considering that capacity has also been added here.

Perhaps the European potato processing industry can best be compared to a top athlete. Someone who, at the peak of their abilities, can deliver incredible performances, but who is also highly susceptible to minor setbacks. If French fry sales are down for a while, the consequences will immediately be significant.

French fry prices significantly higher
The lack of demand is almost entirely due to the high prices for European products, which can be directly traced to the high costs of both potato cultivation and processing. These costs include labor and energy. At their lowest point in 2017 (July), Belgian companies sold fries for an average of €630 and Dutch companies for €785. In June of this year, sales reached €1.169 in Belgium and €1.306 in the Netherlands. That's an 85,5% and 66,3% increase, respectively.

This means the price increase for fries is less substantial than that of potatoes. While free market prices may be extremely low now, contract prices have almost doubled in eight years for Fontane and Innovator, across all delivery periods. This means contracts have risen faster than cultivation costs. VTA is calculating a cost price of €10.438 per hectare for potatoes grown on clay soil (April delivery), a 38% increase. Those with 40 tons of Fontane under contract in 2017 achieved a gross yield of €5.480, compared to €10.832 this year. While the crop was significantly loss-making at the time, it is now barely enough to cover costs.

This also shows that growers desperately need the surplus from their "excess kilos" to generate a much-needed boost above contract prices. And it's precisely these potatoes that are consistently fetching prices of €15 per tonne at the moment.

Contracts lower
Due to the high potato yields, contracts were reduced in 2018, regardless of variety or delivery period. Prices fell by 10% in the field-storage segment, and by 5% to 6% from storage (April delivery). At that time, the Belgian and Dutch acreage remained stable, while that of Germany and France grew slightly. The exceptionally low wheat price also played a role then, reaching a low of €155 per tonne in early 2018. Both friends and foes agree that contract prices will decline for 2026. The exact figures will become clear in the coming months.

Whether the area will shrink significantly remains to be seen. The fact that alternatives are not very profitable and the land is readily available is also a factor. Some direction from the industries is expected here, for example, by setting lower tonnage per hectare. The ball is now in their court. To restore a healthy market, a recovery of French fry exports is necessary so that top athletes can once again deliver world-class performances.