As more and more potato yield figures trickle in, a good picture can be formed of the harvest size in the EU-4 and Poland. The growing season wasn't perfect everywhere, but the figures hardly reflect this. The increased acreage is resulting in a potato volume never before achieved.
Update 14-10-2025 12:00 hrs: Article updated with new figures from France
Belgium, Germany, France, and Poland have all recently released new figures on the potato harvest in their respective countries. Only the Netherlands lacks recent figures, which will be released by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) at the end of this month. Our country is perhaps the most difficult to quantify. Yields in central and northern Netherlands have been average to good, but this is offset by fewer kilos in the provinces of Zeeland, North Brabant, and Limburg.
2 million tons extra
Current figures indicate a table potato yield of 26,78 million tons in the EU-4. This represents a 9,4% increase compared to last year (+2,3 million tons), making it the largest volume ever. While 2024 already set a record, 2025 will significantly surpass it. This is mainly due to the increase in acreage by approximately 60.000 hectares (+11%). In 2017, it was primarily the excellent yield per hectare that resulted in a huge yield. Yield pressure is a long-term trend.
Considering all segments (consumption, seed potatoes, and starch), the total yield in the EU-4 amounts to 35,15 million tons. This is also a record, just like last year, and an increase of 8,23%.
Polish yields rebound
Poland is also expecting a larger potato harvest this year, according to the Polish statistical office (GUS). They estimate a total of 6,8 million tons (all varieties) for this year. Here too, acreage plays a significant role. The area increased by almost 10%, which means the trend in Poland is slightly upwards again. The last time more than 7 million tons of potatoes were harvested was in 2021. The country's potato sector remains meager compared to the past two decades. Yields are also highly variable here, largely due to the erratic weather.
Based on their own trial harvest figures, Vivaverda and Fiwap estimate 4,96 million tons of table potatoes for Belgium this year. This is considerably more than the official Statbel figure, the reality of which is debatable. The sector organizations are a full 1 million tons above the government estimate. Including a growing volume of seed potatoes, the total for Belgium is just over 5 million tons. This is considerably more than was harvested in 2014 and 2017, for example. After three poor years (2020, 2021, and 2022), Belgians have now had three years of increased yields. Here too, this is primarily due to area growth rather than a peak yield. The 2025 season will be marked by drought, which is still affecting arable farmers.
Germany continues to grow
The latest French figures, from the statistics service Agreste, indicate 8,54 million tons of ware potatoes. This represents a 14% increase compared to last year. At the end of September, the German Destatis reported a potato volume of 13,4 million tons, originating from 301.000 hectares of ware potatoes, seed potatoes, and starch potatoes. No figures are yet available for ware potatoes alone. If we exclude the percentage share of starch and seed potatoes in the mix, this leaves approximately 9,78 million tons of ware potatoes. This is considerably more than was harvested last year, when the harvest amounted to 8,96 million tons. This represents an increase of 820.000 tons (9,15%). This means the country produces considerably more potatoes than the Netherlands and Belgium combined. Incidentally, France is also close to reaching this level.
That a total volume of 26,78 million tons of table potatoes is far more than processors need requires little explanation. Even an industry operating at peak capacity is choked by this volume. Unfortunately, the reality is quite different, as European processors are increasingly suffering. In the Netherlands, lines are at a standstill or operating at reduced capacity. At Clarebout in Belgium, all facilities were shut down for over a week due to a widespread strike over the past week and a half.
Tuning
The volume required by EU-4 processors is a matter of conjecture. Exact figures are unavailable. The last time production and processing were properly aligned was in 2022 and 2023. A production of between 21,5 and 22,5 million tons is therefore desirable. Perhaps a little more with strong exports, as capacity has also been further expanded, but that would be the limit of 23 million tons.
To restore balance to the situation, the area in Northwest Europe needs to shrink. A figure of 10% to 20% is being mentioned, although this is still very premature at this stage of the season. Nevertheless, a "bottom" of 10% is certainly justifiable when you consider the growth this year. And that's on top of the 7% growth achieved in 2024. While processors may currently be facing a black cloud, the question is whether they will dare to so readily give up the "bought" area increases (by paying significantly more for contract potatoes). After all, if the dark clouds over the export markets clear, those potatoes may be just as desperately needed again; or during a disappointing growing season. To address the ever-pressured yields, there's really only one solution: more hectares.
Grower confidence
Ultimately, the growers have the final say. Nothing is known about the 2026 contract prices either. The cost price will not be lower next year, while the contracts will certainly be lower from the factories, or at least with a smaller portion at fixed price. If the potato growers choose to (partially) abandon cultivation, the necessary reduction will indeed be achieved. At the same time, alternative crops are few and far between. The final price signed at the beginning of next year could make or break the 2026/27 season.