After two quieter months, Dutch potato processing has risen again to over 300.000 tons. Not that factories are suddenly running at full capacity, but more potatoes were processed in September than a year ago.
Dutch factories got off to a slow start this year. In July and August, 12% to 13% fewer potatoes were consumed than last year. In September, production increased by 5% compared to the same month in 2024.
Slowly but surely, the factories are finally getting up to speed, despite the difficult sales of French fries. Compared to last year, more potatoes have entered the factories, but compared to previous years, the factories' capacity remains modest.
A total of 301.900 tons of potatoes were processed in September, according to figures from the Vavi trade association. The good news for Dutch potato growers is that over 60% of the supply consisted of Dutch potatoes. The share of Dutch potatoes was also significantly higher in July and August than last year.
This temporarily ends the trend of imported potatoes increasingly dominating Dutch factories in the first half of the season. Last year, 53,8% of the supply in July, August, and September consisted of imported potatoes. This year, that has dropped to 42,5%. Since the coronavirus pandemic, that percentage has consistently been higher than it is now, with the import share increasing sharply in the last two years.
Total processing since July of this year is still 4,4% behind last year. Even during the coronavirus pandemic, more potatoes were processed. On the other hand, the difference between the aforementioned 4,4% and last year is still very small. Given the market sentiment, you'd expect that difference to be much greater. But it isn't.
Moreover, the purchase of Dutch potatoes over the past three months has simply been much greater than in the past two years. With a total of 486.500 tons of domestically grown potatoes, 85.900 tons (21,4%) more were processed than in the same period last year. This implicitly means that at least 20% more was contracted, as no free-range potatoes were traded. This is also because buyers are not eager to take the potatoes supplied this year.
No market yet for Fontane
In short, a significant portion of Dutch potatoes has already been consumed. This while the market is still at a standstill. There's still no listing for free-range potatoes of the main variety Fontane in the Netherlands. Belgium is now listing again after a week's absence.
But at a price of €1,50 per 100 kilos, it seems more like disposing of waste streams than processing a valuable product. Even feed potatoes and by-products from potato processing, such as scrapings, steam peels, chips, and press fibers, command a premium. For chips, for example, livestock farmers pay €55 per ton, delivered free of charge, and €38 for potato press fibers.
Safe haven
Of course, contracts are proving to be a safe haven this year. Belgapom reports that the average contract price for this week is €18,30 per 100 kilos. This proves the contract's value to the grower. On the other hand, these contracts hinder the free market. It's clear that without contracts, the market would also be at a standstill, as it is flooded with the current surplus supply.
In that respect, the situation certainly hasn't improved in the past week. The French statistics agency, Agreste, has released a new estimate. It shows, in particular, that the French have planted even more potatoes than previously reported. And that difference matters, because it's a full 5.000 hectares more than was estimated a month ago.
Suddenly, more than 200.000 tons of product are added. Total production in France thus rises to over 8,5 million tons. That's 1 million tons more than the previous record of 7,5 million tons last year. Before that, the French harvest fluctuated between 6 and 6,7 million tons.
The harvest forecasts of the potato organizations Viaverda and Fiwap in Belgium have also not improved the potato market. Based partly on the trial harvests in Belgium, they predict a harvest of almost 5 million tons. That is 650.000 tons (15%) more than the 4,31 million tons the potato organizations anticipate for 2024.
The difference with the estimate from the official statistics agency StatBel is even greater. That gap amounts to 1 million tons, as StatBel reports a potato harvest of just under 4 million tons for 2024.