Disappointing French fry sales from the EU-4 are being cited as a catalyst for the imploding potato market. This conclusion is incorrect. Analyzing the export figures reveals a different picture. In this analysis, exclusively for subscribers of Boerenbusiness, we explain how exports are performing and what this means for the French fry potato market.
Frozen French fry exports in August were virtually the same as a year ago. Belgium saw a slight dip in sales, while the Netherlands remained stable. France continues to grow and sold 12% more product in August, mainly due to increased production capacity and Belgian fries exported to France. Germany recorded a modest increase.
2,5% less exports
This calendar year, exports from the EU-4 countries and Poland amounted to 3,87 million tons up to and including August. Last year, this was 3,97 million tons over the same period. A difference of over 100.000 tons, or 2,5%. It is striking that exports actually declined in only two of the eight months. The difference accumulated in February and June. Export levels were higher in three months this year (compared to 2024) and remained stable in three months.
A clear decline is visible in the export figures for 2025, but these cannot be called disastrously bad. The fact that the current French fry potato market has prices fluctuating between €0 and €1,50 per 100 kilos is therefore more related to this year's enormous harvest. In other words: with a successful (read: normal) export season, the current price level would likely be between €0 and €1,65.
France compensates
Aggregating the figures per country does, however, create a distorted picture. Belgium is suffering the most this year. Its exports are 131.500 tons behind 2024 levels so far, and the Netherlands is 82.825 tons behind. This represents a 7% drop in exports for both countries. This is partially offset by France, which exported 30% (!) more in the same period, totaling 117.635 tons of fries. Poland recorded a modest increase of 9.300 tons, and Germany lost 10% of its exports.
Looking at the list of destinations for fries, something remarkable becomes apparent. France, with nearly 65.000 tons, was the largest buyer in August, thus "buying" a quarter more fries. Over a twelve-month period, the country imported 5% more fries. This puts the United Kingdom in second place, which bought 17% fewer fries in August. While France remains the largest buyer over the entire year, its volume has shrunk by almost 7%.
The Netherlands is also a major destination for European fries, with more than 405.000 tons imported over a twelve-month period. It is questionable whether France and the Netherlands are actually the final destinations for these fries, or whether they are further exported via French and Dutch ports. The export data comes from the Harmonized Trade System, which generally excludes re-export. Nevertheless, such volumes shifted within the EU-4 are questionable.
Prices rise
It's striking that French fry sales prices in this market rose again in August. Only Belgium shows a steady decline in the price of fries. This year, it fell by €66 per tonne, a decrease of 5,4%. In the other countries, a small increase was visible last summer. This is partly understandable, as potatoes are generally at their most expensive at the end of the storage season. For processors who bought potatoes on the open market at that time, this must have resulted in good margins, as open market prices for French fry potatoes were only a few euros.
Some caution is advised when drawing conclusions. French fry exports in July and August were average to good, with the caveat that this varies by country. Dutch processing figures show that factories operated quietly here last summer, picking up speed again somewhat in September. In fact, more potatoes were processed than a year ago. It is known that many French fry lines were idle for short or long periods, which is reflected in the processing figure for October. That's the lowest in 15 years.
Temporary revival
French fry import figures for September show that EU-27 exports have slowed, with 5% fewer fries leaving the country's borders. This is mainly because Asia, the United Kingdom, and Australia purchased less product. No country-level figures are yet available, but they suggest the summer upswing was temporary. Over a twelve-month period, EU-27 French fry exports are now more than 5% below the level of the same period before. Unsurprisingly, price levels were under renewed pressure, with an average drop of more than 10%.
Whether EU-4 French fry exports can limit the losses depends on several factors. Firstly, to what extent competition takes the wind out of their sails and at what price levels. Another negative factor is the high stockpiles that have built up in Europe, particularly in Belgium and the Netherlands. This amounts to almost 215.000 tons of French fries in Belgium and the Netherlands that were not exported this year (compared to 2024) but may have been produced and are therefore in cold storage. In a shrinking sales market, this is bad news. Coupled with a huge potato production, of 36,10 million tonnes in the EU-4, this accounts for the current market situation.
In other words: To create a healthy market, many fries and many potatoes must first disappear from the market to give air to a sector that is struggling to breathe.