Potato market doesn't give presents with Sinterklaas

With the holidays approaching at the end of this month, the extremely low potato prices are unlikely to change for the foreseeable future. Christophe Vermeulen, head of the Belgian potato trade and French fry industry, agrees. "It seems there won't be much movement in this very weak market situation towards the end of the year," he says in his weekly video report. What's going on in potato country?.

It's not just the weekly free market prices that are plummeting due to a market that's completely collapsed. Potato pools also see no way to make a decent profit in the current slump. Aviko pool prices for farm gate delivery are also stuck at a historically low average of €2,50 per 100 kilos.

Director of Agro & Supply, Dick Zelhorst, doesn't mince his words. The unfortunate combination of a 10% increase in European acreage, a 15% increase in yield, and a lack of sales has left Aviko's Potato Growers' Committee (ATC) with virtually no sales opportunities. This meant that some of the pooled potatoes had to be sold to the flake and starch industries, and even ended up as animal feed.

First contracts for 2026
Potato growers can't expect any freebies next year either. Contract prices will be lowered. This was already known, but the first proposals were actually presented this week. In Belgium, the first French fry manufacturers have released their contracts, which indicate that next year they will pay around €4 per 100 kilos less than this season.

The results of the new contracts are no huge surprise. Still, it's a bitter pill to swallow that a market still showing healthy growth globally is suddenly hitting growers in Northwest Europe hard. It wasn't long ago that contract prices were significantly increased in a major battle for hectares. This was necessary to offset the sharply rising costs.

Focus on battle for sales
The latter now seems to have been completely lost sight of. The focus has shifted to the battle for sales, and that calls for belt-tightening. Cheaper fries are needed to regain the lost ground in international fries sales. Simply put, the bill for this will fall on the farmer. Meanwhile, cultivation costs will continue to rise, as growers are also expected to meet the sustainability needs of buyers.   

The French fry industry has won the battle for hectares resoundingly in recent years. So many hectares have been added in two years that the market is oversupplied. This has therefore contributed significantly to the historically low prices of free-range potatoes.

French fries industry wins battle for hectares
The industry needn't worry about the battle for hectares flaring up again overnight. Grain prices have fallen to a low level, and beet cultivation has also been further restricted in 2026. Onions won't fill the gaps either, partly due to a shortage of seed. And vegetable cultivation isn't offering any relief this year either, given the overflowing market.

Growers are therefore forced to continue growing potatoes next year, hoping the market will recover soon. In this situation, it's very easy for the industry to pass the bill for cheaper fries on to the growers.

Lack of alternatives elsewhere too
In the absence of alternatives, potato cultivation remains paramount, and contracts are being signed in large numbers despite the significantly lower prices. The hope for the coming year remains that the neighboring country will plant fewer hectares. France and Germany, where the majority of new hectares have been added in the past two years, are also being considered. But there, too, alternatives are lacking.

The downward path is much more difficult than the (short) upward path behind it. How long this descent will be is unknown. One thing is certain: it will certainly become more slippery. And the risks of this route remain with the grower, who at least knows he will receive less for the potatoes he has committed to. So the celebration of relatively high contract prices proves to be short-lived; enjoy it while you can.