European potato processors are planning to significantly reduce their potato acreage to better balance the supply and demand for French fry potatoes. How they plan to achieve this varies from company to company. It's a bitter pill to swallow, especially for those located far from their buyers.
Much remains unclear regarding the working methods and contracts for the 2026 growing year. Most companies, with the exception of Agristo, have not yet officially announced their pricing policies. However, some companies have held grower meetings, and their field staff are also busy with their New Year's Eve rounds. This way, growers are slowly coming to terms with the bitter reality of the coming year.
Collective or individual
Most French fry potato growers recognize that the current acreage in the EU-4 countries doesn't match the sales of the final product, French fries. But when you have to do a lot of cutting, it's a tough pill to swallow. Whether the processor handles this collectively or focuses on the individual grower varies somewhat. Both are also possible, with, for example, a collective 15% volume discount and a higher discount at the grower level. Percentages of up to 50% are being mentioned. Agristo already announced during its recent growers' meeting that it is applying a collective volume discount of 15%, as reported in the ABS Aardappelpraatje.
What is clear is that potato growers located further away from the factory, in particular, are receiving larger discounts, both in price and volume. For the Netherlands, this means that arable farmers in Groningen and Drenthe are having to make concessions. This applies not only to those who have supplied French fries to Belgian companies in recent years, but also to processors in the Netherlands. If transport costs can be saved, these are being taken. Some buyers also choose to pass on the transport costs to the grower by offering a discount on the contract price.
Eliminate farmland kilos
This method isn't unusual in itself. Consider onion cultivation, where transport costs are generally lower in the Northern Netherlands. This is new for potatoes. Over the past five years, the focus was solely on acquiring more acreage and volume, making higher costs a secondary concern. Things are different now. This also applies to early crops in regions like Bordeaux, where cultivation is also being discontinued or has been completely suspended. In any case, there's much less demand for potatoes during the harvest season.
Another deciding factor is the quality of the products over the past few years. What have you delivered? Do you grow on sandy or clay soil? And can you ship and store them dry? These are all factors that influence the buyer's decision to do business and the type of contract they will subsequently present.
Besides a volume discount, Dutch buyers can vary the number of tons per hectare. In Belgium, this isn't an issue with tonne contracts, but here it's common to be able to fix up to 40 tons per hectare at a fixed price. Depending on the soil type, this can be 30 tons (clay) or 25 tons (sand), according to an insider. Whether or not they have more acreage, the price risk shifts much more to the grower.
Clarebout and Simplot
The acquisition of Clarebout by Simplot could create additional momentum. The Belgian company is the largest European processor, with 4.000 affiliated growers and three million tons of potato processing annually, spread across five locations. The company previously worked with potato traders for its raw material supply, and it's uncertain how that will continue under Simplot's leadership. Furthermore, much remains unclear about the plans of the new owner, who has production facilities in North and South America, Australia and New Zealand, and China at his disposal.
The aim of the measures is to significantly reduce the EU-4 potato area. A 'reset' of the sector is frequently discussed, as Weuthen director Ferdinand Buffen announced this summer. In an analysis of 10 critical changes for the potato market We wrote about a 10-20% reduction in area needed in the EU-4. Industry insiders do indeed cite a 15% reduction as a rule of thumb.
90.000 hectares less
Using this percentage, the area in the EU-4 (the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Germany) for 2026 will reach 515.260 hectares of ware potatoes. A decrease of no less than 90.930 hectares. This means the area is virtually the same as in 2023, meaning the growth gains of the past two years have been reversed.
Calculated with a five-year average yield per hectare of 42 tons in the EU-4, the average harvest amounts to 21,64 million tons of potatoes. This is almost identical to the yield achieved in 2022 and 6 million tons less than harvested this year. This volume is likely on the low side compared to demand, which, given current processing capacity and sales, is closer to 24 million tons. This means that, with an average harvest, the 15% decline is more than sufficient. However, it is good news for a positive free potato price.
Free cultivation
Whether the soup will actually be eaten as hot as it is remains to be seen. Moreover, the availability of seed potatoes for many varieties is not a problem for the coming season. This theoretically allows for more free cultivation, provided growers are willing to take the risk given the current cost prices and uncertain market. The actual acreage yield is therefore also very uncertain.