A combination of a good harvest in 2025 and lower demand for potato products in export markets means that potato processors in the United States and Canada will again be contracting fewer potatoes this year. Growers should also expect slightly lower prices.
Last year, potato acreage in the United States decreased by 7.900 hectares to 366.600 hectares. This was the smallest acreage since 2010. In Canada, however, acreage increased by 3.890 hectares to 160.200 hectares. This is a record for the country, where the expansion of potato processing has increased demand for potatoes.
Second smallest harvest
It's still early days, but the acreage is expected to decrease in both countries this year, primarily because potato processors have less need for potatoes. A good harvest last fall resulted in a large number of potatoes, with yields per hectare slightly above the US average. Due to the reduction in acreage, the total potato harvest volume reached its second-lowest level ever, 2,2% less than what was harvested in 2024. However, the USDA raised its forecast further at the beginning of this year, to 19,04 million tons. This represents a 36.000-ton increase in yield compared to the November estimate.
In Canada, the story is precisely the opposite. An increase in acreage was followed by a smaller potato harvest, thanks to lower production per hectare. This was due to the persistent drought last summer.
Profitability under pressure
Potato growers in both countries are seeing low earnings, not unlike their European counterparts. The US Growers Returns Index (GRI), which shows what's earned from potatoes, has halved this season for Idaho, the largest potato state. In Washington, the second-largest state, prices are also almost 55% lower.
The current situation is comparable to 2010, when prices were also under severe pressure. Massive reductions in potato plantings then caused the acreage to shrink by almost 14.000 hectares to a record low. Insiders expect a similar decline this year, though likely less dramatic. Insiders anticipate a decline of around 3% in acreage, which still amounts to 11.000 hectares. This would put potato cultivation in the US at its lowest level ever.
Prices for wheat, barley, corn, soybeans, and alfalfa, among other crops, are slightly lower than last year. Because the risks are lower than with potatoes, arable farmers do have an alternative.