Market participants quietly hope that the significant uncertainty surrounding obtaining contracts will further reduce the potato acreage. They believe the potato market could certainly use a push in the right direction.
No one dares to say it publicly, but off the record they're letting it be known that the contracting period could drag on for a while. A period of great uncertainty could just force some growers to plant fewer potatoes. And that might just be enough to bring the potato market back to a healthier state.
The contract price reduction will have only a limited effect on the potato acreage in 2026. The vast majority of growers have already factored this in, and a large number are accepting it and aiming for the same cultivation area as last year. There are simply no alternatives.
Based on current developments, some growers have decided to include fewer potatoes in their cropping plans. They are renting less land and opting for easier crops like grain on more difficult-to-access plots.
And then there are the doubters. They try to finalize the contracts, but are consistently rejected. They're constantly told to wait a little longer. Sure, the representative is doing their best, but they can't yet give full approval. This applies to the factory buyers, but certainly also to the trade representatives. Incidentally, this doesn't just concern French fries; contracts for flakes and granules are also pending.
Wait until after spring break
Most traders have to wait until after the spring break before they can begin actual contract work. Some traders are already realizing they've also been hit hard this year. Because they want to limit their contract acreage, processors are no longer doing business with a number of companies. These are usually smaller traders whose network of growers is located further from the factory.
The traders affected by this have decided to play it safe and are now looking for a way out for their businesses, for example, through potato exports. Other traders are still unsure what to do. They're still waiting for the green light from the processors before they can start trading. That signal won't come until after the spring break; so no earlier than early March.
In the meantime, market participants hope that a significant number of growers will decide to take fewer risks by planting fewer potatoes. Of course, weather conditions can still lead to a late and disappointing harvest year, but with the knowledge we have now, many people are currently expecting a limited decline in production.
Fear of price pressure on new harvest
The large stocks currently in storage will, under relatively normal circumstances, lead to price pressure at the start of the new harvest. Therefore, the sector hopes that a few more hectares will be lost to improve the initial situation. Every hectare lost now will be lost later in the season.
Processors and traders say the acreage needs to be reduced by around 15% to 20% to create a healthier starting position. For early potatoes, the reduction in cultivation needs to be even greater. Percentages of up to 40% are being cited. "Otherwise, 2026 won't be anything," says one trader.