Potato processors are harvesting fewer potatoes per hectare this year. The surplus is often harvested as pool potatoes or part-supply potatoes. This means that the coming season will see a significant increase in pool potatoes and part-supply potatoes.
Potato processors contract for 20, 25, or 30 tons of potatoes per hectare. It would be incredibly difficult if more potatoes weren't harvested from these plots. Last year, the national average harvested more than 50 tons of table potatoes per hectare. If 25 tons are contracted, you'd have the same number of potatoes in a pool or on contract as potatoes delivered to the farm.
Some pools are directly connected to a buyer, while others are not. If a buyer is connected, you know the potatoes will be placed somewhere. So you don't have to worry about sales.
Lack of reference
What could pose a problem, however, is the price paid for these potatoes. Currently, there's no active trading on the futures market, meaning there's no benchmark to hedge against the risks. With a lack of trading on the futures market, the physical market lacks a compass.
In recent years, processors have contracted for approximately 80% of the raw materials required for the processing season. Although less is being committed per contract, there are currently no clear indications that the number of committed hectares will decline significantly.
There are growers who, for a wide variety of reasons, cannot obtain a contract, or at least receive fewer than they would like. However, a significant trend reversal, such that processors will only secure 60% instead of 80% in contracts, doesn't seem likely. Processors are reducing their tons per hectare, but the extent to which fewer hectares will be secured remains to be seen.
Processors certainly won't lose any sleep over a slightly lower fixed-price contract. For these buyers, it's nice to have sufficient raw materials available through pools and potato deliveries. And knowing that there's no real need to worry about whether there's enough raw material, it's convenient to set the price later.
Pay at Belgapom
Some kilos are supplied based on Belgapom. And then there's the fact that the Quotation Commission already has to go to great lengths to reasonably provide a quotation every week. That's asking for trouble if even more supply is recorded without a fixed price. The free trade on which the quotations are based becomes even more tenuous, and if that also disappears, any bottom under the potato market will disappear. After all, how can you determine the value of a product if there's no longer any reference?
In short, the potato market is facing a challenging year. The potatoes still have to be planted, and it could, of course, remain extremely dry or extremely wet for a long time, but the current situation is not a healthy starting point for the market. Increasing pressure from potato pools and potato suppliers will further strain free trade. And the free market is already struggling due to the large 2025 harvest and the absence of factories as a result of the sales problems they face.